Gold Price Prediction: Volatility Expected This Week, Says Senior Analyst
Gold prices are likely to remain volatile this week, according to Manav Modi, Senior Analyst of Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. The expert has shared his detailed outlook for gold prices in the near term, highlighting key technical levels and market drivers.
Recent Market Performance and Recovery
Gold and silver witnessed another volatile yet constructive week, with prices rebounding sharply after aggressive liquidation at the start of this month. This recovery occurred as forced unwinding eased and value buying emerged across both precious metals.
The earlier correction—triggered by a sharp dollar rebound, shifting Federal Reserve expectations, easing geopolitical risk premiums, and heavy speculative positioning—appears to have run its course for now. This development has allowed bullion to stabilize and recover, setting the stage for potential further gains.
Technical Analysis and Chart Patterns
Gold rebounded decisively from the ₹141,000 zone, forming a clear V-shaped recovery on daily charts. Prices continue to sustain well above the key momentum pivot of ₹138,000, keeping the broader trend positive for the yellow metal.
Bollinger Bands, which had compressed during the correction period, have begun to expand again with prices moving towards the upper band. This technical signal indicates a revival in directional strength, supported by improving trading volumes across commodity exchanges.
Support Levels and Price Targets
Immediate support for gold is seen near ₹150,000 followed by ₹143,000, according to the analyst's assessment. The earlier target of ₹155,000 has been achieved, marking a significant milestone for investors.
Any sustained close above this ₹155,000 level could open the path towards ₹165,000 and ₹171,000 from a short to medium-term perspective. These projections suggest substantial upside potential if current market conditions persist.
Market Drivers and Economic Factors
Despite a relatively firm dollar and lingering policy uncertainty, safe-haven demand for gold remains underpinned by several factors. Central-bank buying continues to provide support, along with renewed geopolitical and fiscal concerns that typically drive investors toward precious metals.
Domestically, a rebound in USDINR from recent lows has lent additional support to MCX gold prices, creating favorable conditions for Indian investors and traders.
Upcoming Economic Data and Market Sensitivity
Markets will remain particularly sensitive this week to several key economic indicators from the United States. These include inflation data, retail sales figures, PMI readings, and the delayed non-farm payrolls release.
Policy commentary from central banks and economic authorities is also expected to influence trading patterns. These factors are likely to keep intraday swings sharp and pronounced, even as the broader bullion bias remains supportive for gold prices.
Analyst Perspective and Market Outlook
Manav Modi's analysis suggests that while volatility may increase in the coming days, the fundamental and technical picture for gold remains constructive. The combination of technical recovery patterns, sustained support levels, and ongoing safe-haven demand creates a potentially favorable environment for gold investors.
Market participants should monitor the mentioned economic data releases closely, as these will likely determine the short-term direction of gold prices amid the expected volatility.
Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India or Bharat Horizon.
