India's aviation sector witnessed a notable shift in market dynamics in November 2025, with industry leader IndiGo ceding ground to its rivals. According to data reported by CNBC TV-18 on December 30, 2025, IndiGo's market share fell by 2 percentage points, while competitors Air India and SpiceJet saw their slices of the pie expand amidst a significant surge in passenger traffic.
Market Share Shuffle: The November Numbers
The data presents a clear picture of changing fortunes. IndiGo's market share declined to 63.6% in November 2025, down from 65.6% in October 2025. Despite this drop in share, the airline carried more passengers, with its passenger load factor (PLF) rising 6.3% month-on-month to 88.7%.
On the gaining side, the Tata Group-owned full-service carrier, Air India, increased its market share by 1% to reach 26.7% in November. Its operational performance was even more striking, with PLF soaring by 10.2% to 87.5%, indicating robust demand for its services.
The low-cost carrier SpiceJet also registered a gain of 1.1%, taking its market share to 3.7%. Its passenger load factor improved by 5.5% to 87.7%. In contrast, the newer entrant Akasa Air experienced a contraction, with its market share falling by 50 basis points to 4.7%, even as its PLF improved to an industry-high of 93.8%.
ICRA's Sobering Outlook for the Aviation Sector
Despite the healthy passenger load factors across airlines, the financial outlook for the industry remains challenging. In its December update, the credit rating agency ICRA provided a grim forecast. ICRA expects the Indian aviation industry to report a net loss of ₹17,000 to ₹18,000 crore (₹170-180 billion) for the financial year 2025-26 (FY2026).
This projected loss is substantially higher than ICRA's earlier estimate of ₹95-105 billion. The agency attributed this downward revision primarily to elevated losses at IndiGo, stemming from financial impacts related to flight cancellations, passenger refunds, and higher operating expenses due to disruptions in December 2025.
Implications and the Road Ahead
The November data underscores a competitive intensification in Indian skies. While IndiGo remains the dominant player by a wide margin, the gains by Air India and SpiceJet suggest passengers are exploring alternatives. The high passenger load factors across the board confirm that underlying demand for air travel in India continues to be strong.
However, ICRA's warning casts a shadow. The agency also anticipates that domestic air traffic numbers for December will decline, largely due to the ongoing disruptions at IndiGo, which commands the majority of the market. This highlights the sector's vulnerability to operational setbacks at major players and the persistent struggle to translate high occupancy into profitability. The coming months will be critical in determining whether the industry can navigate these financial headwinds while managing growing competition.
