The sudden surge of investor interest in Venezuela following the dramatic removal of President Nicolas Maduro is being labelled as "ridiculous" and dangerously premature by a leading financial expert. Elliot Dornbusch, CEO of CV Advisors, argues that no meaningful economic opportunities will emerge until the country sees a full restoration of democracy and the rule of law.
A Frenzy of Premature Interest
Dornbusch described a frantic wave of inquiries from investors eager to capitalise on the geopolitical shift. "Everybody and their mother is calling their financial advisor, is calling their family office on 'where do we invest? How do we take advantage of this?" he said in an interview. His blunt response to such queries was, "I'm like, are you nuts?"
In a letter to his investors seen by Bloomberg on Tuesday, Dornbusch criticised the US government's strategy. He argued that simply removing Maduro and vowing to work with remnants of his regime to promote oil investments will not succeed in bringing lasting prosperity to the nation. "Political transition must come first," he wrote emphatically.
Deep-Rooted Crisis Needs Systemic Change
Dornbusch brings a unique perspective, having been raised in Venezuela and studied its economy, including the oil sector, before founding a construction company there. He left the country in 2003 during Hugo Chavez's rule, after a major overhaul of the state energy giant Petroleos de Venezuela SA. He later founded Florida-based CV Advisors in 2009, a firm that now manages $15 billion in assets for 135 families and institutions.
He stresses that Venezuela's problems are not solved by ousting one man. "The crisis at Venezuela's core is deep and systemic. It cannot be resolved by simply removing a single leader or toppling one regime figure," Dornbusch wrote. Expecting change while the corrupt structures and thousands who enabled them remain in place is, in his view, completely unrealistic.
Oil Hopes and Investment Questions
The trigger for this investor frenzy was the shocking detention of Nicolas Maduro and his wife from a military base in Caracas early last Saturday. Following this, the Trump administration pledged to collaborate with acting president Delcy Rodriguez—Maduro's former vice president—to revive the crippled oil industry and access the world's largest reserves.
This promise has sparked widespread speculation on how to bet on Venezuela's future, from its defaulted bonds to potential private equity, ETF, or real estate plays. However, Dornbusch offers a stark warning against such moves. "You can't take advantage of this situation. You cannot go and invest in Venezuela because you don't have long-term freedom, democracy, rule of law," he stated clearly.
His firm message is that sustainable investment and true national recovery are impossible without foundational political and legal reforms. The current rush, he implies, is a gamble on sand, not solid ground.
