NEW DELHI: El Nino, a climatic phenomenon associated with weak monsoons in India, may pose risks to farming operations. However, records from the past decade indicate that the country can effectively manage its impact, as seen in 2023 when India reported below-normal rainfall due to a strong El Nino but still managed to sustain agricultural output.
Historical Context and Resilience
The year 2015, a drought year due to severe El Nino, was the last time food-grain output dipped. Even 2018, which experienced below-normal rainfall due to other climatic factors, ended with record food-grain production. This resilience can be attributed to the timely deployment of contingency measures and ongoing efforts to make Indian agriculture drought-proof. These efforts include expanding irrigation networks, emphasizing micro-irrigation (drip and sprinkler systems), choosing less water-consuming crops, and using drought-resistant seeds.
Current Season and Government Response
Amid the El Nino risk, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted below-normal monsoon rainfall for the June-September period, with a 60% probability of it being deficient, triggering fears of drought. India last experienced back-to-back drought years in 2014 and 2015, with deficits of 12% and 14% in overall seasonal rainfall, respectively. So far, India has reported more than a 35% deficit in cumulative monsoon rainfall after its onset over Kerala on June 4, impacting sowing operations in certain states.
Sensing the urgency, Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan held a meeting on the El Nino situation and directed coordinated meetings with district officials, Krishi Vigyan Kendras (KVKs), and other extension agencies in 12 states where the impact of El Nino is likely to be relatively severe during the Kharif season.
Vulnerable States and Districts
The vulnerable states include Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, and Uttar Pradesh. Although 197 districts across the country have been identified as most vulnerable to El Nino, contingency measures are being prepared in 326 districts across these 12 states. Most of these vulnerable districts fall under the monsoon core zone, a region heavily dependent on monsoon rains for farming.
Impact on Crop Yields
A study by the ICAR-Indian Institute of Farming Systems Research in 2023 shows that past El Nino years (2002, 2004, and 2009) reduced the output of key Kharif crops such as paddy and maize by more than 10% in 77 and 65 districts, respectively. Similarly, 2015-16 saw a 5% decline in overall food-grain output due to severe El Nino in 2015. However, since 2016-17, output has steadily increased regardless of rainfall quantity.
Strategic Measures
In the meeting, Chouhan emphasized formulating a separate and practical strategy for each vulnerable district, focusing on water conservation, moisture management, inter-cropping, and alternative cropping patterns. He urged that instead of exaggerating the danger, calm, reliable, and solution-oriented messages based on scientific analysis should reach farmers. The situation should be clarified at the district level, and awareness campaigns should be run so that every farmer knows which precautions and crop options are safer for their area.
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About the Author: Vishwa Mohan is Senior Editor at The Times of India, covering environment, climate change, agriculture, water resources, and clean energy.
