NEW DELHI: El Nino, a climatic phenomenon associated with weak monsoon in India, may pose a risk for farming operations this year. However, hope remains as the country effectively managed its impact in 2023, when India reported 'below normal' rainfall due to a strong El Nino. The year 2015, which saw a drought due to severe El Nino, was the last year when foodgrain output dipped because of the phenomenon. India recorded record foodgrain output in 2018, despite 'below normal' rain due to other climatic factors.
Monsoon Deficit and Sowing Impact
India has so far reported a more than 35% deficit in overall cumulative monsoon rainfall since its onset on June 4, impacting sowing operations in certain states. This deficit has raised concerns among farmers and policymakers alike.
Lessons from Past Success
The success in managing previous El Nino events was possible due to timely deployment of contingency measures and constant efforts to make Indian agriculture 'drought-proof'. Key strategies included expanding the footprint of irrigation networks, emphasizing micro (drip and sprinkler) irrigation, judicious choice of less water-consuming crops, and use of drought-resistant seeds.
Current El Nino Risk
Amid the El Nino risk this year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted 'below normal' monsoon rainfall during the June-September period, with a 60% probability of it being 'deficient'. This has triggered fears of a drought. India last reported two back-to-back drought years in 2014 and 2015, recording 12% and 14% deficits, respectively, in overall seasonal rainfall.
Government Response
Sensing the urgency, Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan held a meeting on Tuesday and directed coordinated meetings with district officials, Krishi Vigyan Kendras (KVKs), and other extension agencies in 12 states where El Nino's impact is likely to be 'relatively severe' during the kharif season. The vulnerable states include Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, and Uttar Pradesh.
Though a total of 197 districts across the country have been identified as most vulnerable to the impact of El Nino, contingency measures are being prepared in 326 districts. This proactive approach aims to mitigate the potential damage to crops and ensure food security.
Conclusion
While the El Nino threat is real, India's past experience and preparedness measures offer a glimmer of hope. The focus on drought-proofing agriculture through irrigation expansion, micro-irrigation, and drought-resistant crops could help the country navigate this challenging period.
