El Nino, which is driving up global temperatures, could surge India's power demand and result in nearly 18 terawatt-hours (TWh) of additional coal burn within a year, according to a new analysis from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
Impact on Power Generation and Demand
The analysis highlights that El Nino reduces wind speeds and rainfall, cutting power generation from wind turbines and hydropower. Simultaneously, warmer temperatures drive up demand for air conditioning, with additional cooling demand potentially totaling as much as 10 TWh within a year—equivalent to a quarter of Delhi's annual electricity use.
India has already endured one of its hottest summers on record, pushing power demand to an all-time high of 270 GW. A super El Nino will put even more strain on the grid while worsening water shortages and pressure on farming, according to Nandikesh Sivalingam, Director of CREA.
Grid Resilience and Renewable Energy
With El Nino occurring every two to seven years, India's ability to meet or exceed its solar and storage deployment targets is key for grid resilience. Solar generation is far less affected by El Nino, meaning every additional solar panel and battery helps future-proof the grid against extreme weather patterns.
India added 44.6 GW of solar power last year, almost double the year before. In 2025, total electricity generation rose by one percent, yet coal generation fell by four percent while renewable output grew by 22%. The trend has held into 2026, with thermal generation between January and May staying below its 2024 level even as demand hit a record and solar generation jumped by almost a third.
Environmental and Public Health Costs
CREA said that increased dependence on coal would come at a significant environmental and public health cost, leading to higher air pollution and intensifying the impacts of extreme heat. Sivalingam emphasized that India must stay on track for its target of 500 GW of non-fossil power by 2030 but also move much faster on batteries and grid upgrades, so that clean energy can meet future surges in power demand reliably and affordably.
