Gold and Silver Prices Set for Volatile Week Amid US Economic Indicators
Precious metal prices, including gold and silver, are anticipated to remain highly volatile and undergo further consolidation in the upcoming week. Investors are closely tracking key US economic indicators, such as inflation data, GDP readings, and signals from the Federal Reserve, which are expected to drive market movements. Analysts emphasize that this period of uncertainty will likely persist as traders seek clarity on monetary policy directions.
Focus on US Data and Federal Reserve Commentary
Traders are also monitoring US labour market data, the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, and speeches from Fed officials. These elements are crucial for understanding the timing and pace of potential interest rate cuts, which significantly influence precious metal prices. According to news agency PTI, this scrutiny is intensifying as markets react to mixed economic signals.
Analysts Predict Consolidative Moves with High Volatility
Pranav Mer, vice president of EBG – commodity & currency research at JM Financial Services Ltd, stated that gold and silver prices may continue to witness consolidative moves, though volatility is expected to remain elevated. He highlighted that the focus will be on incoming US data, particularly GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation numbers, along with Federal Reserve commentary. This combination of factors is likely to keep prices fluctuating in a narrow range.
Domestic Market Performance: Silver Declines, Gold Rises
On the domestic front, silver futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) declined by Rs 5,532, or 2.2 per cent, over the past week. In contrast, gold prices rose by Rs 444, or 0.3 per cent, indicating a divergent trend between the two metals. This movement reflects broader market sentiments and specific demand dynamics within India.
Gold Correction in February Attributed to US Employment Data
Prathamesh Mallya, DVP – research, non-agri commodities and currencies at Angel One, noted that gold prices have corrected sharply in February 2026. Prices fell from highs of Rs 1,80,000 per 10 grams to around Rs 1,53,800 per 10 grams as of February 13. He attributed this weakness to stronger-than-expected US employment data, which reduced expectations of near-term rate cuts and weighed on gold prices over the past week.
However, Mallya added that gold's safe-haven appeal remains intact due to geopolitical tensions and strong buying ahead of the Lunar New Year. He described the current market as a tug of war between bears and bulls, with volatility expected to continue in the week ahead.
International Market Trends: Gold Gains, Silver Edges Up
In the international market, Comex gold futures gained $84, or 1.7 per cent, during the week, while silver edged up marginally to close at $77.27 per ounce. Mer explained that gold prices oscillated between gains and losses through most trading sessions but managed to end the week higher, closing above $5,000 per ounce in overseas markets.
He noted that bullions are in a consolidation phase amid a lack of clarity among traders, who remain divided over price direction and await fresh fundamental triggers. This uncertainty is compounded by mixed signals from global economic data.
Key Drivers Supporting and Capping Bullion Prices
Analysts highlighted several factors supporting bullion prices, including:
- Central bank buying
- Safe-haven demand amid a sharp sell-off in global technology and AI stocks
- A softer dollar index
However, upside movements were capped by:
- Mixed physical demand from India and China
- Profit-booking by ETF investors
- Strong US macroeconomic data
Silver Faces Pressure from Industrial Metals and Equity Sell-Off
Mer also commented on silver's performance, noting that it experienced two-way price movements during the week. The white metal was weighed down by corrections in industrial metals and profit-booking after failing to breach key technical resistance. Additionally, it faced pressure from the tech-led global equity sell-off, which reduced risk appetite across various asset classes.
Outlook: Range-Bound Movement Awaiting Fed Clarity
Analysts concluded that both gold and silver are likely to remain range-bound in the near term. Investors are awaiting clearer signals on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory and broader global economic trends. This cautious approach suggests that volatility will persist until more definitive data emerges, shaping the future direction of precious metal markets.
