The National Statistics Office (NSO) will announce India's crucial economic growth figures for the July-September quarter of fiscal year 2025-26 on November 28, 2025. This highly anticipated data release is expected to show the economy maintaining strong momentum, with most analysts projecting growth in the 7% to 7.5% range.
Analyst Consensus and Economic Context
Market expectations are firmly clustered around robust growth, mirroring the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) projection of close to 7%. According to investment manager Robin Arya, Founder of GoalFi, this indicates a strong performance that aligns with the economy's existing full-year growth trajectory, rather than representing a dramatic acceleration.
This quarter's growth is set against a base of 5.6% growth in the same quarter of the previous fiscal year. For context, the first quarter (Q1) of FY26 saw real GDP reach ₹47.89 lakh crore, a significant increase from ₹44.42 lakh crore in Q1 of FY 2024-25.
Key Drivers of India's Economic Momentum
What is fueling this sustained growth? High-frequency data points to a multi-pronged expansion. Private consumption and the services sector are thriving, supported by manageable inflation, steady growth in real incomes, and a recovering rural economy bolstered by supportive monsoon rains.
"Public capex remains a key pillar, while manufacturing is seeing a cyclical tailwind from inventories and festive demand," noted Arya. However, he cautioned that external demand and goods exports remain a variable that could influence the final outcome.
Garima Kapoor, Deputy Head of Research & Economist at Elara Capital, highlighted potential headwinds, mentioning disruptions from GST cuts and the impact of heavy rains. She noted, however, that these negatives are likely to be offset by a supportive base effect and front-loaded government expenditure.
Institutional Forecasts and Market Implications
Various financial institutions have released their projections, largely converging around the consensus. A State Bank of India (SBI) report is particularly optimistic, forecasting real GDP growth of 7.5% or higher for Q2, driven by a consumption pick-up post-GST rate reductions.
"Growth is being supported by a pick up in investment activities, recovery in rural consumption, and buoyancy in services and manufacturing," SBI Research stated. Meanwhile, India Ratings & Research (Ind-Ra) expects a 7.2% growth, led by robust private consumption and a strong services sector performance.
For markets and policymakers, a growth print around 7% will likely reinforce India's status as one of the world's fastest-growing major economies. As Robin Arya concluded, such a figure would keep the RBI in a data-dependent mode, avoiding any rushed, aggressive shifts in monetary policy.
