NBER Study Exposes How Residential Segregation Stunts Ambition Among Muslims and Dalits in India
A groundbreaking February 2026 research paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has delivered a sobering analysis of how residential segregation is systematically limiting ambition and mobility for Muslims and Dalits across India. The study, titled 'Residential segregation and unequal access to local public services in India,' provides comprehensive evidence that where a child grows up significantly determines their future opportunities.
Comprehensive Data Reveals Widespread Segregation Patterns
Conducted by researchers from prestigious institutions including Imperial College London, Dartmouth College, University of Chicago, and Harvard, the study analyzed census-linked data across nearly 1.5 million urban and rural neighborhoods. The research team assembled unprecedented neighborhood-level datasets from the Economic Census 2013 and SECC 2011-12 to map residential patterns with remarkable precision.
The findings reveal stark segregation: 26% of Muslims live in neighborhoods that are more than 80% Muslim, while 16% of Scheduled Castes (SCs) reside in neighborhoods that are more than 80% SC. This spatial clustering creates what researchers describe as "structural loops" of inequality that compound across generations.
Segregation Directly Impacts Access to Essential Services
The study establishes a clear connection between residential segregation and unequal access to basic public services. According to the report, "Access to public services is systematically worse in neighborhoods where marginalized groups live. This holds for both Muslims and SCs, and for almost every local service that we can measure."
The services examined include primary and secondary schools, medical clinics, piped water, electricity, and covered sewerage systems. The disparities are particularly pronounced for Muslim communities: compared to a neighborhood with 0% Muslim population, a 100% Muslim neighborhood in the same city is 10% less likely to have piped water and only half as likely to have a secondary school.
Educational Mobility Suffers Most in Segregated Communities
Perhaps the study's most troubling conclusion centers on how segregation affects educational advancement and ambition. The paper documents a strong negative correlation between segregation and upward mobility, with regions showing higher segregation consistently demonstrating lower upward mobility rates.
The mobility analysis highlights a particularly strong link between Muslim neighborhood segregation and stalled educational advancement. The researchers note that while segregated SC neighborhoods exist, they are generally less clustered than segregated Muslim neighborhoods, yet both communities face significant barriers.
Connecting to Historical Context and Policy Implications
This research arrives two decades after the landmark 2006 Sachar Committee report first documented the socio-economic marginalization of Muslims in India. While much policy discourse since then has focused on targeted scholarships and welfare scheme inclusion, the NBER report offers a crucial additional perspective: how physical space and residential patterns shape destiny.
The study suggests that spatial clustering of marginalized communities continues to reproduce inequality through a self-reinforcing cycle. Lower educational mobility constrains access to higher-paying jobs, which in turn determines where families can afford to live, thereby reinforcing residential clustering across generations.
Urgent Implications for India's Demographic Future
The implications of these findings are particularly urgent given India's demographic profile. With one of the world's youngest populations, India's much-discussed demographic dividend risks becoming unevenly distributed if large segments of Muslim and SC youth grow up in neighborhoods that systematically dampen upward mobility.
The NBER report ultimately provides empirical evidence that residential segregation isn't merely a social phenomenon but an economic one with measurable consequences for individual opportunity and national development. By quantifying how segregation links to service delivery, labor market opportunities, and mobility outcomes, the study offers policymakers new dimensions to consider in addressing structural inequality in India.
