Significant Drop in Thali Costs Brings Relief to Households
Indian households received a welcome financial respite in October as the cost of preparing both vegetarian and non-vegetarian thalis, or complete meals, witnessed a substantial year-on-year decline. According to the latest data from the Crisil Roti Rice Rate (RRR), the average cost of a home-cooked vegetarian meal dropped by a sharp 17%, while the non-vegetarian thali became 12% more affordable compared to the same period last year.
Key Drivers Behind the Price Decline
The primary force behind this positive trend was a significant reduction in the prices of essential vegetables and pulses. Pushan Sharma, Director at Crisil Intelligence, confirmed, "In October, the cost of vegetarian and non-vegetarian thalis declined 17% and 12%, respectively, on a year-on-year basis as vegetables and pulses turned cheaper."
The report highlights a dramatic fall in the prices of staple vegetables:
- Tomato prices fell by 40% due to higher supplies from western and southern markets.
- Onion prices plummeted by 51% because of higher stock availability from the previous rabi season and subdued exports.
- Potato prices slid 31% on a high base as production in the rabi season 2024-25 rose by 3-4%.
Furthermore, the cost of pulses, a crucial protein source, fell by 17%, driven by a surge in imports of Bengal gram, yellow pea, and black gram.
Moderation in Non-Veg Thali Decline and Counter Trends
The decline in the non-vegetarian thali was relatively more modest. This is because broiler chicken prices, which account for about half of the thali's cost, fell by only 6%. The cheaper vegetables and pulses, however, still contributed to lowering the overall expense.
Not all ingredients followed the downward trend. Vegetable oil prices increased by 11% year-on-year, fueled by higher demand during the ongoing festival season. Additionally, a 6% increase in the price of LPG cylinders limited a steeper decline in the overall cooking cost for households.
On a month-on-month basis, the cost of the vegetarian thali fell by 1% in October, while the non-vegetarian thali saw a 3% decline, aided by a further estimated 4% drop in broiler chicken prices due to oversupply.
Future Outlook for Food Prices
Looking ahead, the price trajectory for key thali ingredients appears mixed. Sharma indicated that potato prices may firm up in November due to low supplies of the early rabi crop but could ease after mid-December. Tomato prices are likely to remain soft with continued kharif arrivals.
However, a cautionary note was sounded for pulses. Their prices may inch up in the near term due to excess rainfall impacting kharif yields and the recent imposition of a 30% import duty on yellow pea. "Should the government extend import duties to other pulses, prices could witness a steeper rise," Sharma added. A moderate rise in onion prices is also possible in the medium term, as excess rainfall in key producing states like Karnataka and Maharashtra has delayed kharif transplantation.
