India's wheat output for the 2025-26 crop year is expected to remain steady despite weather disruptions, the agriculture ministry stated on Sunday, even as an industry estimate suggested lower production.
Ministry's Assessment
The ministry said that the crop is stable and resilient despite localized damage caused by unseasonal rainfall and hailstorms. It described the season as mixed but resilient, with both weather challenges and farmer responses shaping the outcome.
Industry Estimates
An estimate by the Roller Flour Millers' Federation of India (RFFI) on April 24 placed wheat production at 110.65 million tonnes for 2025-26 (July-June). This is slightly higher than the 109.63 million tonnes produced last year but much lower than the government's earlier estimate of 120.21 million tonnes. The previous year's output stood at 117.94 million tonnes. Food Secretary Sanjeev Chopra said the final figure is likely to fall between the two estimates. The federation estimated 110 million tonnes, while the agriculture ministry's pre-rainfall figure was 120 million tonnes. The reality will be somewhere between 110 and 120 million tonnes, he noted.
Weather Impact and Mitigating Factors
The crop was sown across 33.4 million hectares this year, with no reports of pest or disease attacks. Early sowing helped increase the area compared to last year. However, weather conditions affected the crop at key stages. High temperatures in February caused heat stress, reducing the grain-filling period and affecting yields. Later, untimely rain and hailstorms at the maturity stage led to localized damage to both yield and grain quality.
The ministry said some factors could compensate for these losses. Around 0.6 million hectares of additional area was planted this year. Early sowing also helped some crops avoid heat stress. More farmers are using improved seed varieties that are high-yielding and better able to handle heat and other stresses. Weed infestation during the crop's growth was also low.
It is anticipated that the adverse effects of weather anomalies will be largely compensated by increased area, early sowing, and improved varietal adoption, thereby supporting stable national wheat production compared to the crop season of 2024-25, the ministry said.
State-Level Data
Data from states also indicates steady production. In Haryana, arrivals at mandis have crossed the procurement target of 75 lakh tonnes, with 56.13 lakh tonnes already purchased, about 9 lakh tonnes more than the same period last year. Madhya Pradesh has raised its procurement target from 78 lakh tonnes to 100 lakh tonnes after reporting higher-than-expected production. In Maharashtra, wheat output is estimated at around 22.90 lakh tonnes, continuing a steady rise. Arrivals from the Marathwada and Vidarbha regions have remained steady towards the end of April.
The ministry reiterated its view, stating that while localized weather-related impacts have been observed, the overall wheat production scenario for 2025-26 remains stable and resilient, supported by increased acreage, improved agronomic practices, and enhanced varietal adoption.
