The year 2025 marked a seismic shift in India's paints and coatings sector, a ₹70,000-crore market that had enjoyed decades of relative calm. The entry of deep-pocketed conglomerates like the Aditya Birla Group's Birla Opus and JSW Paints' acquisition of Akzo Nobel's India business has thrown the industry into a fierce battle for market share. As the calendar turns to 2026, the competitive heat is only set to intensify, with companies prioritising growth and regional dominance over immediate profitability.
The New Challengers and Their Game Plans
The disruption began with Birla Opus, which has now successfully commissioned all six of its manufacturing plants. The company attributes its rapid entry not to deep discounting, but to product quality and consumer experience. Ajith Kumar, Chief Operating Officer of Birla Opus, described the journey as a "dream come true," with the focus now shifting to improving plant efficiency. The firm is targeting a formidable ₹10,000 crore in revenue by FY28.
Inderpreet Singh, Head of Marketing at Birla Paints, made it clear that aggressive price cuts are not a long-term strategy. This stance was directly contrasted by Parth Jindal, Managing Director of JSW Paints, who, after the Akzo Nobel India acquisition, confidently stated the combined entity would be profitable from day one and wouldn't need to "burn cash" to gain share—a veiled reference to its new rival.
Incumbents Brace for Impact and Shift Strategies
Faced with this new reality, established players are recalibrating. Asian Paints, the market leader, has acknowledged that heightened competition is a permanent fixture. Its Managing Director and CEO, Amit Syngle, stated that all players are putting their "best foot forward." The company has seen its market share dip to around 50% from previous levels of 57-59%, partly due to Birla Opus claiming about a 10% share (including putty).
Berger Paints, India's second-largest player, has been candid about its readiness to prioritise market share over profitability if needed. Meanwhile, other incumbents are digging into their regional strongholds. Kansai Nerolac is fortifying markets where it has scale, and Nippon Paint India is concentrating its efforts in South India.
Analysts' Cautious Outlook for 2026
Financial experts maintain a watchful stance for the coming year. Amit Purohit of Elara Securities notes that while 2025 was about "bottoming out," 2026 will be about growth, but competitive intensity is here to stay. Manoj Menon of ICICI Securities expects industry demand to resume growth in FY27 or calendar 2026, following a two-year slowdown.
Menon also highlighted key developments to watch: the integration of JSW and Akzo Nobel, a likely increase in brand spending by Dulux (Akzo's brand), and how Birla Opus navigates its market strategy following a leadership change—CEO Rakshit Hargave resigned in November 2025.
Nuvama Institutional Equities offers a slightly more optimistic view for the leader, stating Asian Paints is "back with a bang" after becoming very aggressive across promotions, micro-marketing, and innovation. This is reflected in its stock performance, which surged nearly 20% in 2025, outperforming the benchmark Sensex.
Moving Beyond the Discount Battlefield
A significant trend emerging is the industry's gradual move away from purely discount-led strategies. Companies are now sharpening their product portfolios and focusing on execution. For instance, Shalimar Paints, pursuing a turnaround, is shifting focus to underpenetrated towns to avoid brutal metro competition and expects to turn EBITDA-positive this fiscal year.
Kansai Nerolac plans selective investments and a sharper product mix, while players like Pidilite's Haisha Paints are scaling up beyond pilot markets. The true competitive moats, as noted by analysts, remain distribution strength, tinting machine networks, and sustained brand trust.
As 2026 unfolds, the Indian paint industry stands at a crossroads. The battle lines are drawn not just on price, but on regional depth, product innovation, and brand resilience. The year promises to be a definitive one in determining which companies can withstand the heat and paint a profitable future.
