Quick commerce has evolved from a luxury service into a permanent structural shift in India's urban retail landscape, according to a report by Anand Rathi Research. The segment is expected to drive a significant share of the country's retail market growth in the coming years.
Retail Market Growth Projections
India's overall retail market, currently valued at around USD 1.07 trillion, is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8-10 percent during FY26-31, reaching USD 1.5-1.6 trillion, the report stated.
Within this broader market, quick commerce has emerged as a key growth driver. The gross merchandise value (GMV) of the quick commerce segment is forecast to expand to around USD 60 billion by FY31, up from USD 11.3 billion in FY26 and USD 1.6 billion in FY23, registering a CAGR of about 23.3 percent during FY26-31.
Contribution to Incremental Growth
The report estimated that approximately 9-11 percent of the total incremental growth in India's retail market during FY26-31 will be driven by quick commerce, highlighting the sector's increasing contribution to the country's retail ecosystem.
Growth opportunities extend well beyond grocery. The share of non-grocery categories is expected to increase to around 39-44 percent by FY31 from 29 percent in FY26. This provides a meaningful opportunity for higher wallet share expansion and improved margins, as non-grocery categories generally offer better unit economics.
Expansion Drivers
The expansion of quick commerce is being supported by a rapidly growing customer base and rising order volumes across the country. The report projected a sharp increase in the number of monthly transacting users (MTUs). Average MTUs are expected to grow to around 105-115 million by FY31, up from 5.6 million in FY23 and 36-38 million in FY26.
The report outlined that the growth in users and order volumes reflects a virtuous cycle driven by increasing platform relevance, improving consumer experience, and the gradual mainstreaming of quick commerce as a daily consumption habit across India.
