The Indian equity market demonstrated notable resilience throughout the calendar year 2025, navigating a complex landscape of challenges to post modest gains. This performance marked a decade of consecutive positive returns for the benchmarks.
Market Performance Amidst Significant Headwinds
Despite facing record foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows exceeding ₹1.44 lakh crore, muted corporate earnings growth, trade tensions between the US and India, and a depreciating rupee, the key indices managed to end the year in positive territory. The Sensex advanced approximately 9% to settle near 85,200, while the Nifty 50 gained around 10%, closing at about 26,130.
This achievement was primarily fueled by robust domestic institutional and retail investor buying, which effectively counterbalanced the massive FII selling. Market volatility stayed elevated for a large part of the year, but a sharp rally in the final quarter enabled indices to recover their peaks following an extended consolidation phase. Notably, large-cap stocks led the charge, outperforming the broader market.
A clear sign of strong domestic liquidity was the record fundraising via initial public offerings (IPOs), with over 365 issues raising a colossal ₹1.95 trillion. However, Indian equities still lagged behind several of their Asian counterparts during this period.
Technical Outlook: Nifty and Bank Nifty Analysis
Mehul Kothari, Deputy Vice President of Technical Research at Anand Rathi, stated that market sentiment has turned positive after the Nifty 50 index secured a decisive breakout above the 26,200 level.
"The Nifty 50 index respected the support zone of 25,950–25,850, staged a strong rebound, and has now delivered a decisive breakout above 26,200," Kothari explained. He added that this move technically confirms a bullish Cup and Handle formation with a pattern projection of about 400 points. This suggests the index has the potential to climb towards 26,500–26,600 in the coming sessions, provided it sustains above current levels.
On the broader market, Kothari pointed to a Head and Shoulders breakout on the NIFTY 500 index, indicating further upside towards 24,500+ from the current zone around 24,000. For the near term, he identified 26,100 as a crucial support level for the Nifty; a close below this would negate the current bullish setup.
Bank Nifty Approaches Key Resistance
Discussing the banking index, Kothari noted that the Bank Nifty has also achieved a decisive breakout above the psychologically important 60,000 mark, confirming a shift in short-term momentum. However, the index is now approaching a major long-term rising trendline resistance in the 61,000–61,500 zone.
"This supply zone may not be easy for the bulls to overcome in the first attempt and could lead to near-term consolidation or intermittent profit booking," Kothari cautioned. He advised that while the structure remains positive, the risk-reward becomes less favourable at these higher levels near resistance.
Today's Stock Recommendations: Three Picks Under ₹200
For trading opportunities on Monday, Mehul Kothari of Anand Rathi recommended three stocks, providing specific entry, target, and stop-loss levels.
1. Welspun Living: Kothari recommends buying the stock at ₹133, with a target price of ₹138 and a stop-loss set at ₹130.
2. UCO Bank: The recommendation is to buy at ₹30.50. The target for this trade is ₹34, and investors should place a stop-loss at ₹29.
3. Indian Oil Corporation (IOC): Kothari advises buying near ₹166.50. The suggested target is ₹172, with a stop-loss at ₹162.
Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations are those of the individual analyst and not of Mint. Investors are strongly advised to consult certified experts before making any investment decisions.
