Shares of Bajaj Auto Ltd. witnessed a significant rally on Tuesday, January 6, climbing 3% to touch a fresh 52-week peak of ₹9,783.50 on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). This surge was propelled by a bullish upgrade from domestic brokerage firm Emkay Global Financial Services, which cited robust growth prospects for the two- and three-wheeler manufacturer.
Strong Sales Performance Drives Optimism
The upgrade follows the company's December 2025 sales figures, which were largely in line with market expectations. Bajaj Auto reported a 14% year-on-year increase in total sales, selling 3.6 lakh units in December 2025 compared to 3.2 lakh units in the same month the previous year.
A breakdown of the sales data reveals a dual-engine growth story. Domestic sales saw a moderate rise of 4%, reaching 1.69 lakh units. However, the standout performance came from the export front, where dispatches jumped an impressive 25% to 2 lakh units. This underscores the company's strengthening position in international markets.
Segment-wise, two-wheeler volumes grew 14% YoY to 3.10 lakh units. Within this, domestic two-wheeler sales increased by 3%, while exports for this category soared by 24% to 1.78 lakh units. The three-wheeler segment also posted healthy growth, with sales climbing 17% YoY to 59,456 units.
For the April-December period of the current fiscal year, the company's overall sales grew 6% YoY to 37.47 lakh units. While domestic volumes during this nine-month period saw a slight dip of 3%, exports demonstrated strong momentum with a 19% growth.
Emkay Global's Bullish Stance and Revised Target
In light of these positive developments, Emkay Global upgraded its rating on Bajaj Auto stock from 'Add' to 'Buy'. The brokerage also substantially increased its target price for the stock to ₹11,100 from the earlier ₹9,500. This new target implies a potential upside of approximately 17% from the last closing price, not including dividends.
In its research note, Emkay highlighted that Bajaj Auto's overall domestic two-wheeler market share has bottomed out and is showing signs of a pick-up. This recovery is being driven by improved share in both the premium motorcycle segment and the electric scooter space in the third quarter of FY26.
The brokerage firm also raised its earnings per share (EPS) estimates for FY27 and FY28 by about 4% and 9%, respectively. It factored in the value of Bajaj Auto's financing subsidiary, Bajaj Auto Credit, at ₹300 per share. Emkay pointed to the company's strong export trends and the upcoming launch of a refreshed Pulsar range in calendar year 2026 as key growth drivers, expecting a healthy 14% EPS compound annual growth rate over FY26-28.
Stock Performance and Market Trajectory
Bajaj Auto's stock has been on a steady bull run in the near term, defying broader market volatility. The scrip has gained 4% in just the past five trading sessions. Over a six-month period, it has delivered returns of 14.57%, while the one-year return stands at 10%.
Showcasing its multibagger status, the stock has skyrocketed 175% over the last five years. It is important to note that the stock had hit a 52-week low of ₹7,088.25 on April 7, 2025, marking a remarkable recovery since then. The stock is listed on both the BSE and the NSE.
Emkay concluded that the stock presents an attractive risk-reward proposition at current levels, backed by strong export momentum and favorable currency depreciation tailwinds, which should support margin growth given its high export volume mix.
