Gold prices in India have demonstrated extreme volatility throughout 2025, reaching an unprecedented peak of ₹1,27,500 per 10 grams on October 27. Despite these significant price fluctuations, the precious metal has continued to serve as a reliable safe-haven asset for investors navigating geopolitical uncertainties and economic stress.
Mixed Performance of Jewellery Stocks
According to Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet, while gold prices have surged to record levels, jewellery company stocks have delivered inconsistent returns. Many jewellery stocks have posted weak or negative year-to-date returns in 2025, with only a select few efficiently managed brands demonstrating strong performance.
Gold-focused NBFCs have emerged as significant beneficiaries of the price surge, experiencing substantial gains as improved gold valuations strengthen their loan-to-value ratios and boost overall profitability.
Expert Outlook for 2026
Sachdeva anticipates further strength in gold prices during 2026, driven by multiple factors including easing global monetary policy, sustained central-bank purchasing, steady inflows into gold ETFs, the broader de-dollarization trend, and growing concerns about the mounting U.S. debt burden.
Analysts Ashutosh Murarka and Heet Chheda of Choice Institutional Equities emphasize that companies with strong business visibility, operational stability, design agility, and automation-driven production will likely withstand gold price volatility better than their competitors.
Investment Strategy for Jewellery Stocks
Sachdeva recommends that investors adopt a stock-specific approach rather than assuming jewellery stocks will automatically follow gold price movements. She suggests that any temporary pullback in gold prices could actually revive consumer demand and support margin improvement, particularly for players with strong brands and innovative product strategies.
Anil R of Geojit Investments identifies organized retailers like Titan and Kalyan Jewellers as likely beneficiaries of the upcoming wedding season, which typically drives 40-50% of annual jewellery sales in India between October and March.
Choice Institutional Equities has initiated coverage on two emerging players: Shringar House of Mangalsutra, which holds a 6% market share in the mangalsutra segment and supplies to major brands including Titan's Tanishq; and Shanti Gold International, which maintains a strong position in the bridal jewellery segment that constitutes approximately 52% of India's overall jewellery demand.
Despite gold jewellery having a price elasticity of demand of -0.6, indicating that quantity demanded falls by 6% when prices rise by 10%, the industry is expected to sustain value growth through the current price environment.
