The new trading year for gold began with a tentative note in Indian markets. While gold futures opened on a firm footing this Thursday, the initial gains were quickly surrendered as investor caution prevailed in a session with limited global direction.
Domestic and International Price Movement
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), the most active gold contract for February delivery settled at ₹135,690 for every 10 grams. This marked a modest decline of ₹114, or 0.08%, from the previous close. This range-bound movement came after the metal had scaled a historic peak of ₹1,40,465 per 10 grams just days earlier, on December 26.
The scenario in international markets was similar. In New York, Comex gold futures for February delivery concluded Wednesday's trading at $4,332.10 per ounce, down by $25 or 0.57%. This pullback followed its own record high of $4,584 per ounce, also hit on December 26. Trading cues were sparse as US markets remained shut on Thursday for the New Year's Day holiday.
Expert Analysis: What Drove 2024 and the 2026 Outlook
Ajay Menon, MD & CEO of Motilal Oswal Financial Services, reflected on the powerful rally seen in gold and silver over the past year. He attributed the surge to a confluence of macro stress, strong structural demand, shifts in monetary policy, and widespread global unrest.
Looking ahead, Menon highlighted several themes that could significantly influence the bullion markets in 2026. "We continue to believe these factors, along with a change in BOJ’s policy, a change in Fed governor, and the ripple effect of tariffs could be possible themes impacting bullion in 2026," he stated.
Key Drivers for Future Trends
He further elaborated that inflows into Gold Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are likely to remain a major influential factor. However, shorter-term price trends will likely be dictated by speculative trading positions and broader macro drivers. These include fluctuations in currency values, particularly the US dollar, and the evolving prospects for global economic growth.
The trading session underscored a period of consolidation for gold, as markets digested the record-breaking gains of late December. Investors and analysts are now keenly watching the interplay of monetary policy, geopolitical developments, and investment flows to gauge the precious metal's trajectory in the coming years.
