India-EU FTA Fuels Market Optimism Amid Key Economic Survey Release
The Indian stock market is poised for a flat to mildly positive opening today, with sustained optimism surrounding the landmark India–European Union Free Trade Agreement (FTA) continuing to bolster the positive momentum observed over the past two trading sessions. This historic trade pact, which eliminates tariffs on an impressive 90 to 96 percent of traded goods, is structurally advantageous for India's export-oriented sectors. Key beneficiaries include textiles, apparel, leather, gems and jewellery, marine products, tea, coffee, chemicals, and micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). Furthermore, the agreement is anticipated to facilitate enhanced technology inflows, improve services mobility, and bolster India's long-term global competitiveness.
Market Sentiment and Key Influences
Despite this positive backdrop, near-term market upside may face constraints due to several factors. Persistent foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows, cautious pre-Budget positioning by market participants, and mixed global cues—including heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—could act as limiting forces. However, underlying domestic strength provides a cushion. A cooling India VIX (volatility index), stable macroeconomic indicators, and robust performance in the banking sector offer significant downside support. This confluence of factors is likely to keep overall trade largely range-bound, with selective, stock-specific action driving opportunities.
Economic Survey 2025-26 Takes Center Stage
Market attention today is firmly fixed on the release of the Economic Survey 2025-26 at 11:00 AM. This crucial document will set the stage and guide expectations for the upcoming Union Budget, scheduled for February 1. Investors and analysts will scrutinize the survey for insights into key areas such as capital expenditure projections (estimated around Rs 12 lakh crore for FY27), fiscal discipline, and anticipated policy support for critical sectors like infrastructure, defence, and manufacturing. The survey's findings will be instrumental in shaping market direction in the coming sessions.
Expert Technical Analysis: Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty Outlook
Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, notes a marked improvement in Indian stock market sentiment, driven by renewed buying interest following the India-EU FTA announcement. He highlights that the Nifty 50 index is currently encountering resistance in the 25,400 to 25,500 zone. A decisive and sustained breakout above this critical hurdle could potentially trigger a fresh wave of upside momentum on Dalal Street.
Elaborating on the Nifty 50's outlook, Bagadia stated, "On 28 January 2026, the Nifty 50 traded with a positive bias, extending its recovery from the previous session. The index opened above key short-term levels and consistently held above the 25,300 mark during early trade, reflecting renewed buying interest. This strength is supported by optimism around the India–EU trade pact and positive global cues. The index continues to defend the 25,200 support zone, indicating demand is emerging at lower levels, while technical patterns suggest near-term range-bound behaviour. Resistance lies around the 25,400–25,500 zone, which has capped upside thus far. A decisive breakout above this area could help validate further strength toward higher levels."
Regarding the Bank Nifty, Bagadia observed, "On the 1-hour and daily charts, Bank Nifty has demonstrated relative strength against the broader market. This is supported by strong buying interest at lower levels around the 59,200–59,000 support zone. The rebound from these levels indicates that dip buyers remain active in the banking index. The price is now approaching the 59,900–60,000 resistance band, where supply pressure may reappear. A clean breakout with sustained acceptance above this zone could pave the way for further upside momentum. This would improve the short-term technical structure and reinforce bullish sentiment for the financial space."
Bagadia also cautioned that a failure to hold above key intraday averages or to break through the identified resistance levels could invite consolidation or renewed corrective pressure. He emphasized that maintaining support integrity around the 59,300–59,400 zone is structurally essential for sustaining the current positive momentum.
Top Breakout Stock Picks for Intraday Trading
For today's trading session, Sumeet Bagadia has recommended five breakout stocks for intraday consideration. The recommendations include specific entry points, targets, and stop-loss levels.
- Union Bank: Buy at ₹181.93, Target ₹195, Stop Loss ₹174. The stock is currently trading at ₹181.93 and is showing signs of a trend recovery after retesting its all-time high zone and subsequently pulling back from its support region.
- NMDC: Buy at ₹81.52, Target ₹88, Stop Loss ₹78.30. NMDC share price is at ₹81.52. The stock exhibits a positive technical outlook, with a bullish reversal from the recent swing low indicating trend continuation. The price is trading above its key short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), reflecting improving strength and buying interest.
- MRPL: Buy at ₹163.97, Target ₹185, Stop Loss ₹154. MRPL is trading at ₹163.97. The stock presents a compelling bullish setup, having executed a strong reversal from a Double Bottom pattern near the ₹140 support level. It has decisively reclaimed ground above its 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs, confirming a trend shift, with immediate support around ₹151.
- IRFC: Buy at ₹120.15, Target ₹130, Stop Loss ₹114.80. IRFC share price is at ₹120.15. The stock shows a promising bullish reversal from its support zone. It has surged past its 20-day EMA and is currently testing the 50-day EMA, indicating strengthening short-term momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has crossed the neutral 50 mark to reach 50.50, reflecting renewed buying interest.
- GPIL: Buy at ₹257.20, Target ₹278, Stop Loss ₹246. GPIL is trading at ₹257. The stock is showing a bullish continuation setup on the daily chart after a period of healthy consolidation. The price has bounced strongly from the 200 EMA zone and is now trading above the 20 and 50 EMAs, indicating a recovery in short-term momentum. The recent bullish candle suggests renewed buying interest, supported by improving volume.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified financial experts before making any investment decisions.
