India is on track to finalise the initial part of a significant bilateral trade agreement (BTA) with the United States before the close of 2025, as per recent reports. This development signals a major breakthrough in trade relations between the two nations.
Steady Progress Amid Global Shifts
Speaking at an event last week, India’s Commerce Secretary, Rajesh Agarwal, confirmed that negotiations have advanced steadily, even against the backdrop of changing global trade dynamics. He revealed that the government is pursuing "two separate parallel tracks" in its engagements with Washington. One track involves a focused deal running alongside the broader, more comprehensive BTA discussions.
The core objective of this anticipated pact is to address the recent punitive tariffs of approximately 50% imposed by the US on Indian goods. These levies, which began with a 25% reciprocal tariff announced by US President Donald Trump in April and were followed by an additional 25% in August related to Russian oil purchases, have severely disrupted trade. The high duties forced a temporary halt or deferral of many export orders, dealing a significant blow to Indian exporters.
Market Experts See End to Uncertainty
Pankaj Pandey, Head of Research at ICICI Securities, believes that rolling back these duties to a competitive level will eliminate business uncertainty. This move is expected to immediately reopen trade channels, unlocking the volumes of exports that were previously delayed.
Capitalising on this theme, ICICI Direct has launched a specialised 'One Click Portfolio' titled "Beneficiaries of India-US Trade Deal." This portfolio highlights companies with strong fundamentals that are directly exposed to US demand and are likely to see substantial medium-term upside from the trade agreement.
Seven Stocks Poised for Gains
The curated portfolio includes seven stocks across sectors like manufacturing, textiles, auto ancillaries, and specialty industrial solutions. ICICI Direct emphasises that these firms have sustainable business models and are positioned to benefit meaningfully as export orders resume and pricing turns favourable post-deal.
The selected companies and their portfolio weights are:
- Balkrishna Industries (16.3%)
- Aeroflex Industries (15.5%)
- Greenlam Industries (14.2%)
- Elgi Equipments (14.2%)
- Coforge (13.6%)
- Indo Count Industries (13.2%)
- Gokaldas Exports (13.0%)
The model portfolio, with an investment range of around ₹14,100, is benchmarked against the Nifty 500 index. Notably, the allocation shows a strong conviction in smaller, high-growth export-oriented businesses, with 70.1% exposure to small-cap stocks and 29.9% to mid-caps.
Performance data indicates that this "Beneficiaries of Trade Deal" portfolio has consistently outperformed the Nifty 500 from November 2022 to November 2025. This trend underscores the structural export strength these companies have maintained despite recent policy challenges.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations above are from individual analysts or broking firms and not of Mint. Investors are advised to consult certified experts before making any investment decisions.
