The Indian stock market is poised for a cautious opening on Monday, with benchmark indices likely to begin trading on a flat note. This muted sentiment follows mixed signals from global markets and trends in the Gift Nifty futures, which were trading at a slight discount.
Market Recap and Immediate Outlook
On Friday, domestic equities closed firmly in the green after the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) policy announcement. The Sensex jumped 447.05 points, or 0.52%, to settle at 85,712.37. Meanwhile, the Nifty 50 gained 152.70 points, or 0.59%, ending the session at 26,186.45. However, for the week, the Nifty 50 slipped 0.08%, halting its three-week winning streak.
The trends on Gift Nifty suggest a subdued start for the Indian benchmark index, with the futures trading around the 26,322 level, marking a discount of nearly 11 points from the previous close of Nifty futures.
Technical Analysis: Sensex and Nifty 50 Predictions
Market analysts have provided detailed technical perspectives on the key indices. For the Sensex, Amol Athawale, Vice President of Technical Research at Kotak Securities, noted the formation of a promising reversal pattern on daily charts. The index is trading comfortably above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is viewed as a positive sign.
Athawale identified 85,000 and 84,700 as crucial support zones for positional traders. He stated that as long as the Sensex remains above these levels, the bullish sentiment is expected to persist. On the upside, 85,900 serves as an immediate resistance, and a breakout above this could propel the index towards 86,500. A fall below 84,700, however, could trigger a decline towards 84,200-84,000 levels.
Echoing a similar view, Mayank Jain, Market Analyst at Share.Market, pointed out that the next major resistance for the Sensex lies at 86,000 – 86,200, where significant call Open Interest (OI) is concentrated. A breakout here could lead to fresh record highs. Support is seen around 85,200 – 85,000.
For the Nifty 50, the index resumed its uptrend after reclaiming ground above its 5-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 26,100. Nandish Shah of HDFC Securities sees immediate resistance around 26,300, followed by 26,500. The 25,950 – 26,000 band is expected to act as a crucial support zone.
Nilesh Jain of Centrum Broking highlighted that the Nifty 50 took strong support at the 21-day Moving Average near 25,950 and rebounded sharply. He believes the broader trend remains bullish, with the index likely to move towards the 26,500 zone. The volatility index also dropped sharply by 11% to 10.50, a level considered comfortable for bulls.
Bank Nifty and Derivative Data Insights
The banking index, Bank Nifty, ended Friday's session 0.82% higher at 59,777.20, gaining a similar percentage for the week. The weekly chart displayed a small-bodied candle with a long lower shadow, indicating buying interest during declines.
Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities believes the Bank Nifty index is well-positioned for further gains, with near-term targets at 60,400 and subsequently 61,000. The 59,200 – 59,100 area is seen as a strong support zone. Ravi Singh of Master Capital Services Ltd. noted that the index reversed near the 21-day EMA around 58,978, reinforcing it as dynamic support. A decisive close above the psychological 60,000 mark could open the door towards 60,600.
On the derivatives front, the cumulative Nifty Put Open Interest is significantly higher than Call OI, highlighting strong downside protection at the 26,000 zone. Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, stated that heavy Put writing in the 25,900 – 26,100 band reinforces this support base, while fresh Call buildup at higher strikes reflects emerging supply. The Put-Call Ratio remains near 0.80, signaling a bullish bias.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking companies. Investors are advised to consult certified experts before making any investment decisions.
