Indian Stock Market Poised for Flat Opening on Thursday
The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are anticipated to commence trading on a flat note this Thursday. This outlook is influenced by mixed cues emanating from global markets, which have created an atmosphere of caution among investors.
Adding to this subdued sentiment, the trends observed on Gift Nifty also point towards a muted start for the Indian benchmark index. Specifically, the Gift Nifty was trading at approximately the 25,980 level, representing a discount of nearly 14 points compared to the previous close of Nifty futures.
Recap of Previous Session and Market Outlook
On Wednesday, the Indian equity markets concluded the session on a flat note, primarily due to profit-booking activities. Despite this, the benchmark Nifty 50 managed to hold firm above the 25,950 threshold.
In terms of specific figures, the Sensex experienced a slight decline of 40.28 points, equivalent to 0.05%, settling at 84,233.64. Conversely, the Nifty 50 recorded a marginal gain of 18.70 points, or 0.07%, closing at 25,953.85.
Detailed Predictions for Key Indices
Sensex Technical Analysis and Forecast
The Sensex formed a small-bodied candle on the daily charts, coupled with non-directional activity on intraday charts. This pattern suggests a state of indecisiveness prevailing between bullish and bearish forces in the market.
Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, provided his expert analysis. "We maintain the view that, on the lower side, the 84,200 mark would serve as a crucial support zone. Meanwhile, 84,500 is expected to act as an immediate resistance area for the bulls. As long as the Sensex continues to trade within this defined range, non-directional activity is likely to persist. However, a successful breakout above the 84,500 level could potentially propel the index towards the 84,800 to 85,000 range," Chouhan explained.
On the contrary, he cautioned that selling pressure is likely to intensify if the index falls below the 84,200 support. In such a scenario, the Sensex could retest lower levels around 84,000 to 83,700.
Echoing similar sentiments, Mayank Jain, a Market Analyst at Share.Market, highlighted that the immediate support for the Sensex is now positioned within the 83,800 to 84,000 zone.
"For a complete trend reversal to occur, it is essential for the index to reclaim and sustain above the 84,500 to 84,600 resistance zone. The 84,500 level continues to host a high concentration of Call Open Interest (OI), functioning as a major psychological and technical barrier for bullish participants, especially in the upcoming expiry session," Jain added.
Nifty 50 Technical Perspective and Range
In the derivatives segment, notable put writing at the 25,900 strike and heavy call writing at the 26,000 strike for Nifty options indicate a narrow near-term trading range is anticipated.
Hitesh Tailor, Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking, commented on the strategy. "Overall, the current market setup favors a buy-on-dips approach near key support levels. Traders may prefer to wait for a decisive breakout above resistance zones before initiating fresh directional positions," Tailor advised.
The Nifty 50 itself formed a small-bodied candle with a lower shadow on the daily chart. This formation suggests that buying interest remains intact even during minor market dips.
Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, provided his technical interpretation. "A small negative candle was formed on the daily chart, accompanied by a minor lower shadow. Technically, this market action indicates a consolidation movement occurring at the crucial hurdle around the 26,000 levels. The opening upside gaps from February 3rd and 9th remain open or partially filled, which is a positive indication for the market," Shetti noted.
According to his analysis, the underlying trend of the Nifty 50 continues to remain positive. A sustainable move above the 26,000 resistance could potentially pull the index towards the next resistance levels of 26,350 to 26,400 in the near term. Immediate support is placed at the 25,800 level.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, observed that the broader structure remains constructive as long as the Nifty 50 index sustains above the 25,800 to 25,900 support cluster. However, near-term momentum appears subdued, with profit-booking emerging at higher levels.
"A sustained breakout above 26,000 is essential to revive bullish momentum. Such a move could open the path toward 26,100 to 26,300, with potential for further extension on follow-through buying. Conversely, a decisive break below 25,900 may invite short-term consolidation or a mild retracement toward 25,800. For now, the Nifty 50 index remains range-bound with stock-specific action dominating, unless a clear directional breakout unfolds," Ponmudi R stated.
Mayank Jain further elaborated that immediate support for Nifty 50 is placed in the 25,850 to 25,900 range. The 25,900 Put strike holds significant Open Interest (OI), reinforcing it as a near-term floor.
"Conversely, immediate resistance is visible in the 26,000 to 26,050 range, with a formidable hurdle at 26,000 where Call writers remain most aggressive ahead of the weekly expiry," Jain added.
Bank Nifty Index Analysis and Projections
The Bank Nifty index ended Wednesday's session 118.95 points, or 0.20%, higher at 60,745.35. It formed a small-bodied candle on the daily chart and continues to hold above all key moving averages.
Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, analyzed the index's behavior. "Bank Nifty remained in consolidation mode for the third consecutive session, oscillating within the 60,876 to 60,445 range. The 60,500 to 60,400 zone continues to act as a strong demand pocket, with buyers repeatedly stepping in near this band. A decisive breakout above or below this range is likely to determine the next directional move," Shah explained.
For Bank Nifty, he believes the immediate resistance is placed in the 61,000 to 61,100 zone, making it a strong resistance area.
"Any sustained move above this zone could lead the Bank Nifty index to continue its upward trajectory towards 61,400, followed by 61,700 in the near term. On the downside, the zone of 60,500 to 60,400 is likely to act as a strong support," Shah projected.
Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities, highlighted additional technical indicators. The Bank Nifty index is trading above the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) near 60,650, which is acting as immediate intraday support. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is placed near 61, suggesting steady strength without entering the overbought zone.
"The Directional Movement Index (DMI) setup shows the Positive Directional Indicator (+DI) firmly above the Negative Directional Indicator (-DI), while the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 20 reflects a stable but not overstretched trend phase. The immediate support is placed at 60,400, followed by 60,300. On the upside, 61,000 to 61,050 remains the key resistance zone. The Nifty Bank may continue to trade within a range with relatively lower intraday movement unless a decisive move occurs beyond the resistance zone," Mehra concluded.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations presented above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of the publication. Investors are strongly advised to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
