Indian Stock Market Anticipates Flat Opening on Thursday
The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are poised to commence trading on a flat note this Thursday, mirroring the subdued sentiment observed in global markets. This outlook is further corroborated by the trends in Gift Nifty, which is currently trading around the 25,858 level, indicating a marginal premium of nearly 10 points compared to the previous close of Nifty futures.
Recap of Wednesday's Market Performance
On Wednesday, the domestic equity markets concluded the session with modest gains. The benchmark Nifty 50 managed to close above the 25,700 mark, while the Sensex recorded a slight uptick. Specifically, the Sensex advanced by 78.56 points, or 0.09%, settling at 83,817.69. Concurrently, the Nifty 50 climbed 48.45 points, or 0.19%, to finish at 25,776.00.
Sensex Prediction and Technical Analysis
Throughout the trading day, Sensex oscillated within a defined range of 83,100 to 83,900, with intraday charts reflecting a lack of clear directional momentum. This pattern underscores the ongoing indecisiveness between bullish and bearish forces in the market.
Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, provided insights into the potential movements. He emphasized that the 83,900 level or the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) serves as a critical resistance zone. A sustained breach above this threshold could propel the index towards 84,200 to 84,500. Conversely, a drop below 83,100 might lead to a decline to 82,800 or even 82,500. Given the current non-directional market texture, Chouhan advocates for a level-based trading strategy as the most prudent approach for day traders.
Mayank Jain, Market Analyst at Share.Market, highlighted that immediate support for Sensex is now situated in the 83,200 to 83,000 range. On the upside, reclaiming the resistance zone between 84,000 and 84,200 is imperative for a complete trend reversal and a subsequent push towards all-time highs.
Nifty 50 Outlook and Derivative Data
Nifty derivatives data reveals significant put writing at the 25,800 strike and robust call writing at the 26,000 strike, suggesting the establishment of a near-term trading range.
Hitesh Tailor, Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking, noted that with the index closing marginally higher yet remaining range-bound, the near-term outlook remains cautiously positive. He recommends a selective buy-on-dips approach, contingent upon the key support zones holding firm, which indicates limited downside potential and room for gradual upward movement.
Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, observed that Nifty 50 formed a bullish candle and maintained its position above crucial support levels, signaling consolidation at lower levels despite challenges in higher zones. He described the formation of a small bullish candle with minor shadows as indicative of a breather pattern following Tuesday's substantial upmove. Shetti affirmed that the underlying short-term trend continues to be positive, with the next upside hurdles positioned around 26,000 and 26,350 levels. Immediate support is identified at 25,600.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, believes that a sustained breakout above the 25,800 to 25,850 resistance could drive Nifty 50 further upwards towards 26,000 and beyond. He pointed out that the market currently lacks a strong directional trigger, with buying emerging on declines and selling observed on rallies. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 55 reflects balanced momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) did not sustain a strong bullish crossover after the gap-up. A clear breakout or breakdown from the current range will be pivotal for the next directional move.
Mayank Jain added that immediate support for Nifty 50 lies between 25,550 and 25,500, where the 25,500 Put strike has accumulated significant open interest, reinforcing it as a support level. Conversely, immediate resistance is visible in the 25,900 to 26,000 range, with a notable hurdle at 26,000 where Call writers are most aggressive ahead of the upcoming RBI policy announcement.
Bank Nifty Prediction and Technical Indicators
The Bank Nifty index concluded Wednesday's session with a gain of 196.85 points, or 0.33%, closing at 60,238.15. It formed a small candlestick on the daily chart, indicating consolidation after recent movements.
Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, noted that the 58,800 to 58,900 zone continues to act as a robust support area for Bank Nifty, having held firm over the last two trading sessions. Sustaining above this zone has kept the broader structure intact, even as momentum remained muted. The immediate resistance is placed in the 60,500 to 60,600 zone, making it a crucial supply area to monitor. Shah believes any sustained move above this zone could lead the index to continue its upward trajectory towards 61,000, followed by 61,300 in the near term. On the downside, the 59,800 to 59,700 zone is likely to serve as strong support.
Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities, highlighted that Bank Nifty is trading above all key moving averages, confirming that the broader trend remains bullish. The index is also holding above the falling trendline. The RSI on the daily chart is positioned near 57, while the Directional Movement Index (DMI) setup shows the positive directional line moving back above the negative line, with the Average Directional Index (ADX) remaining moderate. Immediate support is placed at 59,900, followed by a stronger base near 59,750, which coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. Immediate resistance remains at 60,450 to 60,500, followed by 60,650. Mehra suggested that the index is currently in a consolidation phase, and the next directional move will likely be guided by a decisive move above resistance. He recommends considering a buy-on-dips approach for the next session.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations presented above are those of individual analysts or broking companies and do not reflect the stance of Mint. Investors are advised to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
