Indian Stock Market Poised for Bullish Start on Monday
The Indian stock market is gearing up for a positive opening on Monday, with benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 expected to trade higher. This optimistic outlook is driven by favorable global market cues and strong domestic momentum from the previous trading session.
Global Trends and Gift Nifty Signal Strength
Upbeat sentiment across international markets is providing a solid foundation for Indian equities. The Gift Nifty, a key indicator for the Indian benchmark index, was trading around the 25,926 level, reflecting a significant premium of nearly 191 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close. This gap-up signal suggests robust investor confidence and sets the stage for a strong start to the trading week.
Friday’s Market Performance and RBI Policy Impact
On Friday, the Indian stock market closed in positive territory following the announcement of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) monetary policy. The benchmark Nifty 50 settled near the 25,700 level, marking a decisive upward move. The Sensex rose by 266.47 points, or 0.32%, to close at 83,580.40, while the Nifty 50 gained 50.90 points, or 0.20%, ending at 25,693.70.
Sensex Technical Analysis and Key Levels
Sensex demonstrated strong performance last week, gaining 1.59% and forming a bullish candle on the weekly chart. However, a noticeable upper shadow indicates intermittent profit booking at higher levels. Market analysts have identified critical support and resistance zones for the index.
Mayank Jain, Market Analyst at Share.Market, emphasized that immediate support for Sensex lies in the 82,900 – 83,100 range. He noted that reclaiming the 84,000 – 84,200 resistance zone is essential for a complete trend reversal. The 84,000 mark remains a significant psychological and technical barrier, with a high concentration of Call Open Interest (OI) acting as a hurdle for bullish momentum.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, highlighted that Sensex is currently holding above key moving averages, including the 50-day EMA at 83,576 and the 100-day EMA at 83,395. Immediate support is placed at 83,000 – 83,300, with a stronger support zone at 82,500 – 82,800. Resistance is visible near 84,000– 84,500, representing prior highs. Large-cap stocks are expected to continue attracting long-term interest, with near-term momentum favoring gradual upside unless global headwinds intensify.
Nifty 50 Prediction and Chart Patterns
Nifty 50 formed a strong bullish candlestick on the weekly chart and closed decisively above the 20-week EMA, reflecting a positive shift in medium-term trend structure. Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, pointed out that a reasonable bull candle was formed on the daily chart with a long lower shadow, indicating a possible bullish hammer pattern. This formation suggests a potential trend reversal to the upside.
Shetti also noted that the huge opening upside gap from February 3rd remains partially filled. If this gap stays partially filled for the next couple of sessions, it could be considered a ‘bullish runaway gap,’ typically formed in the middle of an uptrend. A sustainable move above 25,800 could pull Nifty 50 towards 26,000 and 26,350 levels in the near term, with immediate support placed at 25,500.
Nilesh Jain, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at Centrum Broking, highlighted that momentum indicators have turned supportive on the daily chart. The RSI has rebounded from the oversold zone and moved above the 50 mark, indicating improving strength. Additionally, India VIX cooled off sharply by 20% during the week to close near 12, with further decline in volatility offering additional comfort to bulls. The overall structure for Nifty 50 looks positive with upside potential towards 26,000 levels, and a buy-on-dips strategy remains advisable as long as the index sustains above 25,250.
Mayank Jain of Share.Market added that immediate support for Nifty 50 is placed in the 25,550 – 25,600 zone, where the 25,500 Put strike has seen steady accumulation. A breach below this could lead to a test of the 25,400 level. Conversely, immediate resistance is visible in the 25,800 – 25,850 range, with a strong hurdle at 26,000 where Call writers remain most aggressive.
Bank Nifty Outlook and Technical Indicators
Bank Nifty index ended 56.90 points, or 0.09%, higher at 60,120.55 on Friday, forming a thin-bodied candle with a relatively long lower shadow on the daily chart. This pattern suggests demand emerging at lower levels and responsive buying on dips.
Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, noted that immediate resistance for Bank Nifty is placed in the 60,300 – 60,400 zone, making it a crucial supply area to watch. Any sustained move above this zone could lead to the index continuing its upward trajectory towards 60,800, followed by 61,200 in the near term. On the downside, the 20-day EMA zone of 59,700 – 59,600 is likely to act as strong support.
Dr. Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer at Master Capital Services Ltd., emphasized that Bank Nifty continues to trade above its 21-day and 55-day EMAs, indicating improving momentum and strengthening trend structure. Immediate support is placed in the 59,650 – 59,550 zone, aligned with the 21-day EMA. A break below this could drag the index toward 59,000. On the upside, 60,400 remains a key hurdle, and sustained strength above this level may trigger a recovery toward 61,000. Overall, the setup supports a buy-on-dips approach.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations provided above are those of individual analysts or broking companies and do not represent the stance of Mint. Investors are advised to consult certified experts before making any investment decisions.
