The Indian stock market is poised for a cautious start on Thursday, with benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 likely to open lower. This anticipated decline comes amidst mixed signals from global markets and ahead of the highly anticipated release of the Economic Survey 2026. The trends observed on Gift Nifty further reinforce expectations of a weak opening for the domestic benchmark index.
Market Indicators and Global Context
As of the latest data, the Gift Nifty was trading around the 25,365 level, representing a discount of nearly 86 points compared to the previous close of Nifty futures. This significant gap suggests underlying caution among investors. The global backdrop remains mixed, contributing to the subdued sentiment. In a widely expected move, the US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged within the target range of 3.5% to 3.75%, a decision that continues to influence international market dynamics.
Key Domestic Events: Economic Survey and Union Budget
All eyes are on Parliament today, where Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is scheduled to table the Economic Survey for the fiscal year 2025–26. This comprehensive document, which provides an in-depth analysis of the nation's economic performance and prospects, will be followed by a media briefing conducted by Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran. The Economic Survey traditionally sets the stage for the Union Budget, which is set to be presented on Sunday, February 1, 2026. These back-to-back events are critical catalysts that can significantly sway market direction in the coming sessions.
Recap of Previous Session's Performance
On Wednesday, the Indian equity markets closed on a positive note, with broad-based buying activity across various segments. The benchmark Nifty 50 managed to close above the psychologically important 25,300 level. Specifically, the Sensex surged by 487.20 points, or 0.60%, to settle at 82,344.68. Similarly, the Nifty 50 gained 167.35 points, or 0.66%, ending the session at 25,342.75. This upward movement sets an interesting context for the potential volatility expected today.
Technical Analysis and Market Predictions
Sensex Outlook
From a technical perspective, Sensex formed a bullish candle on the daily charts and is currently holding an uptrend continuation formation on intraday charts, which is largely viewed as a positive signal. Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, provided detailed insights. He noted that for day traders, the 82,000 level would now act as a crucial support zone. If the index sustains above 82,000, the ongoing pullback rally could potentially extend towards 82,800, with further upside possibly lifting Sensex to the 83,000 mark. Conversely, a break below the 82,000 support could trigger a shift in sentiment, prompting traders to exit long positions.
Nifty 50 Forecast
The Nifty 50 index witnessed a follow-up move and also formed a bullish candle on the daily chart. Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, observed that a reasonable bull candle has been formed with both upper and lower shadows. Technically, this market action indicates the continuation of the Pre-Budget rally, with the market now positioned at the edge of breaking above the crucial overhead resistance of 25,450 levels. Shetti believes the overall chart pattern suggests the formation of a short-term bottom reversal. A sustainable move above the 25,450–25,500 resistance zone could open the doors for a broad-based rally towards 25,800 levels in the near term. Immediate support is placed at the 25,200 level.
Adding to this analysis, Nilesh Jain, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at Centrum Broking Ltd., noted that the Nifty 50 index continues to hold above its long-term 200-Day Moving Average (200-DMA) at 25,170, which is likely to act as a key support. The overall structure remains positive, with scope for the up-move to extend towards the 25,500–25,600 zone, where the immediate hurdle of the 100-DMA is placed at 25,600 levels. Jain highlighted that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded from oversold levels and is trending higher, indicating improving momentum. Furthermore, the volatility index, INDIAVIX, cooled off sharply by 7% to around 13.50; any further decline would add comfort to the bulls. He expects Nifty 50 to trade in a broader range of 25,200–25,600 in the short term.
Bank Nifty Projection
The Bank Nifty index ended 393.35 points, or 0.66%, higher at 59,598.80 on Wednesday, after witnessing a sharp intraday bullish reversal marked by strong impulsive candles. Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, pointed out that the Bank Nifty index has managed to close above its key short-term support of the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Meanwhile, the shrinking MACD histogram bars on the daily chart suggest a loss of bearish momentum and hint at a potential trend stabilisation in the near term. For Bank Nifty, the immediate resistance is placed in the 59,900–60,000 zone, making it a crucial supply area to watch.
Shah believes any sustained move above this resistance zone could lead the Bank Nifty index to continue its pullback on the upside towards 60,300, followed by 60,600 in the near term. On the downside, the 50-day EMA zone of 59,100–59,000 is likely to act as a strong support. Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities, added that the RSI has moved back toward the 52–53 zone, indicating improvement from lower levels. The Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) remains below the zero line, though the recent uptick reflects a pause in downside momentum following the recent decline. Mehra noted that on the downside, 59,200–59,000 remains the immediate support band, while resistance is around 59,850–60,000. Holding above 59,500 remains important to continue moving toward higher levels, while a failure to sustain above this zone may keep the index confined to a narrow and volatile range.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations presented above are those of individual analysts or broking companies and not of Mint. Investors are advised to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
