Indian Stock Market Faces Tepid Start Amid Mixed Global Signals
The Indian stock market is poised for a cautious opening on Thursday, with benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 likely to trade lower following mixed cues from global markets. The Gift Nifty, which often serves as an early indicator for Indian market sentiment, was trading around 25,953 level, representing a discount of nearly 33 points from the Nifty futures' previous close.
This potential decline comes despite Wednesday's strong performance where both major indices extended their rally for the third consecutive session. The Nifty 50 closed decisively above the 25,850 mark, while the Sensex recorded significant gains of 595.19 points, or 0.71%, to settle at 84,466.51. The Nifty 50 similarly advanced by 180.85 points, or 0.70%, ending the day at 25,875.80.
Expert Analysis: Sensex Support and Resistance Levels
Market technicians are observing a continuation of the uptrend on intraday charts for Sensex, suggesting the potential for further upward movement from current levels. Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, identified key support zones that traders should monitor closely.
"For trend-following traders, 84,300 and the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), or 84,000, would act as a key support zone. As long as Sensex maintains positions above this level, the bullish sentiment is likely to continue," Chouhan explained. He added that on the higher side, the index could potentially advance to 84,800, with further upside possibly pushing it toward the 85,000 milestone.
However, Chouhan cautioned that if Sensex falls below the 20-day SMA or breaches the 84,000 level, market sentiment could shift dramatically. In such a scenario, traders might consider exiting their long positions to protect their investments.
Analysts at Share.Market have reaffirmed support for Sensex in the 83,900 – 84,000 range, while resistance is currently positioned around 84,500. They emphasize that a sustained close above this resistance zone could create opportunities for additional near-term gains.
Nifty 50 Technical Outlook and Derivative Signals
The Nifty 50 formed a green candle on the daily chart during Wednesday's session, indicating underlying market strength. Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, described the formation as a "reasonable bull candle" with minor upper and lower shadows, characterizing it as an uptrend continuation pattern.
Shetti noted that if the present opening gap remains unfilled for the next 2-3 sessions, it could be classified as a bullish runaway gap, typically formed during the middle of a trend. He maintains that the underlying short-term trend for Nifty 50 remains positive, with upside targets around 26,100 - 26,200 levels in the coming sessions. Immediate support is positioned at 25,700 levels.
In the derivatives segment, Nifty open interest (OI) data revealed significant call writing at the 25,900 and 26,000 strike prices, while maximum put OI concentrated at 25,800. This configuration highlights strong resistance around the 25,900 level.
Amruta Shinde, Technical & Derivative Analyst at Choice Equity Broking, commented that "overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, and a sustained close above the 25,900 mark will be crucial to reinforce bullish momentum and open the door for further upside in the near term."
Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities, identified the 25,760 – 25,730 zone as immediate support for the Nifty 50 index. He warned that a break below 25,730 could trigger profit booking toward 25,560. On the upside, Shah noted that the 26,000 – 26,030 zone will act as key resistance, with a sustained move above 26,030 potentially opening the gates for further advancement toward 26,180 in the near term.
Bank Nifty Performance and Outlook
The Bank Nifty index presented a more mixed picture, ending Wednesday's session with modest gains of 136.50 points, or 0.23%, to close at 58,274.65. The index formed a Bearish Opening Marubozu candle on the daily chart, indicating substantial selling pressure near the 58,500 – 58,580 zone.
Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivative Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates Ltd., pointed out that immediate support for the index is placed near 57,590. He anticipates that in the short term, the Bank Nifty index will likely consolidate within the 57,590 – 58,580 band. A decisive breakout on either side of this range will determine the next directional move for the banking index.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, observed that despite intraday profit-booking episodes, the Bank Nifty index maintained firm positions above the 58,250 psychological level, reflecting strong underlying bullish sentiment. He noted that the near-term range remains defined between 58,200 – 58,500, with a decisive breakout above 58,500 potentially setting the stage for an extended rally toward the 59,000 milestone.
As traders prepare for Thursday's session, market participants will closely monitor global cues, derivative data, and technical levels to navigate the potentially volatile opening. The mixed signals from various indicators suggest that cautious optimism should guide investment decisions, with key support and resistance levels serving as critical markers for market direction.
