The Indian stock market is gearing up for a positive start to the trading week, with benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 expected to open higher on Monday. This optimistic outlook follows upbeat global market cues and positive trends in Gift Nifty, which was trading around the 26,155 level, showing a premium of nearly 78 points from the Nifty futures' previous close.
Market Performance and Technical Outlook
On Friday, the Indian equity market snapped its two-day gaining streak, closing lower. The Sensex dropped 400.76 points, or 0.47%, to settle at 85,231.92, while the Nifty 50 declined 124.00 points, or 0.47%, to close at 26,068.15. Despite this pullback, technical charts suggest the broader trend remains positive.
Amol Athawale, Vice President - Technical Research at Kotak Securities, noted that Sensex has formed a bullish candle on weekly charts and shows an uptrend continuation pattern on both weekly and daily timeframes. He identified 85,000 and 84,500 (the 20-day SMA) as crucial support zones for traders. As long as Sensex maintains above these levels, the bullish sentiment is likely to persist. The immediate resistance is seen at 85,800, with a potential move toward 86,500 if this level is breached convincingly.
Nifty 50 Analysis and Options Data
The Nifty 50 options landscape presents a relatively balanced expiry scenario. According to Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, total Nifty Call Open Interest surged by over 6 crore contracts, while Put OI saw selective unwinding. This indicates that Call writers are attempting to cap the index below 26,200. However, significant Put additions at the 25,900-26,000 level suggest bulls are actively defending these key support areas.
Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, observed that Nifty 50 formed a red candle with a long upper shadow on the daily chart, signaling selling pressure at higher levels. Despite this, the index gained 0.61% last week and formed a reasonable bull candle with a long upper shadow near all-time highs, maintaining a bullish outlook.
Shetti expects the near-term trend to remain positive, with potential short-term weakness forming a higher bottom around 26,000-25,900 levels. He anticipates a bounce back from these support zones, with immediate overhead resistance around 26,250-26,300.
Bank Nifty Prediction and Market Sentiment
The banking sector index didn't escape Friday's downturn, with Bank Nifty closing 480.00 points, or 0.81%, lower at 58,867.70. For the week, the index still managed a 0.60% gain but formed a shooting star pattern on weekly charts, indicating short-term weakness.
Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivative Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates Ltd, advised traders to book profits on pullbacks as long as Bank Nifty stays below 59,440. Immediate support is placed near 58,600, followed by 58,050.
Puneet Singhania, Director of Master Trust Group, offered a more optimistic perspective, noting that Bank Nifty remains comfortably above the previous breakout zone of 58,500 and continues to trade above the 21-day and 55-day EMAs, highlighting strong upward momentum. He identified immediate support at 58,500, with stronger weekly base near 58,000, while resistance is positioned around 59,300.
Nilesh Jain, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research Analyst at Centrum Broking, pointed out that momentum indicators and oscillators remain in buy mode on both daily and weekly charts. He expects a phase of consolidation before the next upward move, with Nifty 50 likely to oscillate within a broader range of 25,800-26,200.
Market analysts unanimously emphasize that while short-term volatility may persist, the broader market structure remains constructive. The 21-day moving average around 25,840 is expected to serve as key support during any pullbacks, and a breakout above recent swing highs could pave the way for fresh record levels around 26,300.
