Indian Stock Market Navigates Cautious Terrain with Bullish Undertones
The Indian stock market exhibited a cautious, range-bound bias on Friday as investors absorbed the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) decision to maintain interest rates unchanged. This move reinforced the central bank's preference for stability, even as global trade visibility improved following recent U.S. tariff adjustments. Market sentiment found support from regulatory clarity, with the RBI indicating that banks would be permitted to lend to Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), thereby enhancing long-term funding visibility for the real estate and credit sectors.
On the domestic front, a slight recovery in the Indian rupee, aided by moderated corporate dollar demand, helped alleviate near-term currency concerns, providing additional support to the market.
Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty Outlook: Key Levels and Momentum Indicators
Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, noted that the undertone of the Indian stock market remains slightly bullish. The Nifty 50 index demonstrated resilience by bouncing back strongly from a weak opening, ultimately closing above 25,650. According to Bagadia, the key benchmark index now faces a significant hurdle in the 25,800–25,850 band. A decisive breakout above this resistance zone could potentially trigger a fresh bull trend on Dalal Street.
Elaborating on the Nifty 50's performance, Bagadia stated, "The Nifty 50 began the session on a weak note and remained under selling pressure in the first half, marking an intraday low at 25,491.90. However, a robust rebound in the latter half led to a recovery of nearly 210 points from the day’s low, with the index settling at 25,693.70, reflecting strong buying interest at lower levels." He identified near-term resistance in the 25,800–25,850 range, while immediate support is positioned in the 25,550–25,600 zone.
Bagadia highlighted that the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52.72 indicates neutral momentum with a slight bullish bias. In the derivatives segment, significant put writing is visible at the 25,500 strike, while substantial call writing is observed at the 25,800 and 26,000 strikes, defining a clear short-term consolidation range. As long as the index maintains a closing above 25,500, a selective buy-on-decline approach can be adopted, with a strict stop-loss at 25,450.
Regarding the Bank Nifty index, Bagadia emphasized that it continues to respect the key psychological level of 60,000, which remains a crucial sentiment indicator. Structurally, the 59,600–59,700 zone now acts as a strong demand and support area, bolstered by the confluence of the short-term 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Sustained holding above this zone suggests that dip-buying interest remains active and the short-term trend structure stays constructive.
"On the upside, Bank Nifty is facing an immediate resistance zone around 60,300–60,400, where supply pressure may emerge. A clean breakout and sustained acceptance above this zone would further strengthen the bullish structure and open the path for a move toward the higher resistance band near 60,500–61,000," Bagadia added. He concluded that the Bank Nifty maintains a positive bias with range-bound to bullish undertones, with trend continuation dependent on its ability to defend key support levels and absorb supply near overhead resistance zones.
Top Breakout Stock Recommendations for Intraday Trading
Sumeet Bagadia of Choice Broking has recommended five breakout stocks for intraday trading, based on technical analysis and momentum indicators.
- IDBI Bank: Buy at ₹106.86, Target ₹115, Stop Loss ₹102.50. The stock is displaying a strong bullish continuation structure on the daily chart after forming a higher low base and resuming its uptrend. Price has decisively reclaimed the 20 EMA and 50 EMA, with all short- and medium-term moving averages trending upward, indicating strengthening momentum. The stock is also comfortably above the 100 and 200 EMA, confirming broader trend support. Recent bullish candles with rising volume suggest fresh accumulation.
- Sharda Cropchem: Buy at ₹1192, Target ₹1285, Stop Loss ₹1147. Trading at all-time high levels, this stock indicates strong bullish dominance and sustained demand. It has delivered a decisive breakout above its previous resistance zone of ₹1160 to ₹1170, supported by strong bullish candles and expanding volumes, confirming breakout strength. Price is comfortably trading above the 20, 50, and 100 EMAs, all aligned upward, reflecting strong trend momentum. Pullbacks have been shallow and well-supported near short-term averages, highlighting accumulation.
- Navin Fluorine: Buy at ₹6417, Target ₹6850, Stop Loss ₹6200. The stock is trading at fresh all-time highs, showcasing strong trend continuation after a steady consolidation phase. It has maintained a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, indicating sustained institutional participation. Price is firmly above the 20, 50, 100, and 200 EMAs, with all averages trending upward, reflecting strong multi-timeframe momentum. Volumes have expanded on up-moves, while declines remain low-volume, suggesting accumulation.
- Escorts: Buy at ₹3763, Target ₹4000, Stop Loss ₹3630. This stock is showing bullish continuation after a corrective decline, with price rebounding strongly from the ₹3,300 to ₹3,400 demand zone. It has reclaimed the 20 EMA and 50 EMA and is now trading above the 100 EMA, while the 200 EMA near ₹3,570 is acting as a solid base. Rising EMA alignment reflects improving momentum. Recent bullish candles supported by volume indicate accumulation.
- Carraro India: Buy at ₹547, Target ₹590, Stop Loss ₹530. The stock remains in a strong uptrend, marked by consistent higher highs and higher lows on the daily timeframe. It is trading above its 20, 50, and 100 EMAs, all sloping upward, highlighting sustained bullish momentum.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
