IPO Market Faces Significant Headwinds as Key Offerings Conclude Subscription
The primary market in India is witnessing a cautious phase following a brief hiatus, with multiple initial public offerings (IPOs) scheduled to debut on Dalal Street in the upcoming months. Today, on February 11, the subscription windows for both the Fractal Analytics IPO and the Aye Finance IPO are set to close. However, investor enthusiasm for these offerings appears notably restrained, reflecting broader market apprehensions.
Contrasting Subscription Trends on Final Day
On the concluding day of the bidding process, the Fractal Analytics IPO has achieved full subscription, indicating a relatively stronger investor reception. In stark contrast, the Aye Finance IPO continues to grapple with lackluster demand, struggling to gain substantial traction among market participants. This divergence highlights the selective appetite prevailing in the current IPO landscape.
Analysts Paint a Grim Picture for 2026 IPO Market
Financial analysts maintain a consistently pessimistic outlook for the IPO market in 2026. They argue that the market has exhausted its tolerance for disorderly practices. Specifically, the blatant offloading by private equity firms and IPOs overly focused on facilitating exits are no longer considered sustainable strategies. The previous market cycle inflicted significant losses on both retail and institutional investors, prompting a fundamental behavioral shift towards greater scrutiny and caution.
Grey Market Premium (GMP) Analysis: A Tale of Two IPOs
Examining the grey market premium trends provides critical insights into market sentiment for these ongoing public issues.
Aye Finance IPO: Muted Grey Market Activity
The Aye Finance IPO GMP stood at ₹0 today, according to data from investorgain.com. This indicates that shares were trading precisely at the issue price of ₹129 in the unofficial grey market, with neither a premium nor a discount. Over the past week, the GMP for Aye Finance has been on a downward trajectory and is anticipated to decline further. The recorded GMP range has been between a minimum of ₹0.00 and a maximum of ₹5.
The ₹1,010 crore offering comprises a fresh equity issue worth ₹710 crore and an Offer for Sale (OFS) component of ₹300 crore by existing investors. These selling shareholders include prominent names such as Alpha Wave India, MAJ Invest Financial Inclusion Fund, CapitalG (associated with Alphabet), LGT Capital, and Vikram Jetley. The price band for the IPO has been fixed between ₹122 and ₹129 per equity share, with each share having a face value of ₹2.
Fractal Analytics IPO: Modest Premium with Downward Pressure
The Fractal Analytics IPO GMP is currently ₹2.5. When combined with the upper end of the IPO price band at ₹900, this suggests an estimated listing price of approximately ₹902.5 per share. This represents a marginal increase of only 0.28% over the issue price. Analysis of grey market trends over the last nine sessions indicates the current ₹2.50 premium is part of a declining trend. The GMP has fluctuated between a minimum of ₹2.50 and a maximum observed value of ₹180.
This substantial offering, estimated at ₹2,834 crore, includes a new issue segment of ₹1,023.5 crore and an OFS portion valued at ₹1,810.4 crore. The subscription window for the Fractal Analytics IPO opened on Monday, February 9, and concludes today, February 11. The price band is set in the range of ₹857 to ₹900 per equity share, with a face value of Re 1.
Brokerage Reviews and Investment Perspectives
Aye Finance IPO Analysis
According to Swastika Investmart, Aye Finance Limited operates as a non-banking financial company (NBFC) specializing in providing business loans to micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). The brokerage views the company's fundamentals as robust, citing consistent growth in both revenue and profitability. The IPO suggests a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 14x based on FY25 earnings, which is deemed reasonably valued compared to listed NBFC peers. The firm concludes that the IPO is suitable for long-term investors with confidence in MSME lending growth and a moderate risk appetite for NBFC credit.
Stoxbox by BP Equities highlights the company's strong capital position, with the Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets Ratio (CRAR) improving to 34.9% in FY25, providing ample room for future expansion. The loan portfolio remains well-diversified, with 65% fixed-rate and 35% floating-rate loans as of FY25, aiding margin stability. The brokerage notes impressive financial performance: Net Interest Income (NII) grew by 42.3% to ₹699 crores in FY2024-25, while net profit doubled to ₹175 crores during the same period.
At the upper price band of ₹129 per share, the offering is valued at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.84x based on FY25 earnings, aligning with industry valuations. Considering the scalable business model, expanding distribution network, and improving earnings trajectory, Stoxbox by BP Equities recommends a "Subscribe" rating for the IPO.
Fractal Analytics IPO Analysis
SBICAP Securities points out that Fractal Analytics operates in the specialized domain of Data Analytics, leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) developed through both in-house R&D and external models. The company maintains a dominant presence across four key industry verticals, serving leading global corporations. The average tenure of its top ten client relationships exceeds eight years. At the upper price band of ₹900, the issue is valued at a FY25 P/E ratio of 78.9x based on post-issue market capitalization.
Lakshmishree Investment & Securities observes strong financial momentum, with operational revenue increasing by 25.90% to ₹2,765.40 crore in FY 2025. After a transitional FY 2024, the company returned to profitability, reporting an annual profit of ₹220.6 crore and improving its Adjusted PAT Margin to 12.6%. This recovery is supported by a Net Revenue Retention rate of 114% and a strengthened enterprise client base, including four clients contributing over US$20 million each annually.
While acknowledging that the emergence of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) presents a long-term disruptive risk to traditional AI models, the brokerage emphasizes Fractal's strong competitive position and deep client trust in the analytics niche. As the company capitalizes on growing global demand for enterprise-grade AI solutions, its ability to sustain high margins and operational leverage is viewed positively. Consequently, Lakshmishree Investment & Securities advises a "SUBSCRIBE" rating for long-term investors.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations presented above are those of individual analysts, experts, and broking companies, and not of any specific media outlet. Investors are strongly advised to consult with certified financial experts before making any investment decisions.
