Escalating geopolitical tensions, fueled by anti-government protests in Iran and a potential intervention threat from the United States, are predicted to drive silver prices to new highs when markets open on Monday, January 12, 2026. Experts anticipate a significant surge in the precious metal, citing its status as a traditional safe-haven asset during times of global uncertainty.
Market Reaction to Geopolitical Unrest
The trigger for this forecast is the intensifying situation in Iran. On Saturday night, citizens flooded the streets of the national capital, Tehran, in widespread anti-government demonstrations. The protests have been met with a severe crackdown by the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei-led government, which has also imposed an internet shutdown across the country. Adding to the volatility, former US President Donald Trump's threat of intervention in the conflict has heightened fears of a broader regional confrontation.
This geopolitical storm is directly impacting commodity markets. Data from the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) shows that silver prices for the March 2026 contract closed at ₹252,002 per kilogram after Friday's trading session. This marked a slight decline of 0.29% or ₹723 per kg from the previous close of ₹252,725 per kg. However, analysts believe this dip is temporary and sets the stage for a major rally.
Expert Price Forecast for Silver
Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered commodity expert, stated that the developments in Iran and the potential US involvement are likely to be the primary drivers for precious metals. He provided specific price targets, indicating that silver rates may open higher and touch $82 and $85 per ounce on international markets. For Indian investors on the MCX, Gupta predicts prices could hit ₹256,000 and ₹260,000 per kg.
The outlook for the upcoming week is described as constructive for investor sentiment. Beyond immediate geopolitical risks, the long-term structural demand for silver from the solar energy, electric vehicle (EV), and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure sectors continues to provide a solid price floor.
Technical Analysis and Key Levels
Ponmudi R, CEO of SEBI-registered firm Enrich Money, provided a technical perspective. He identified a strong support zone for MCX silver in the range of ₹240,000 to ₹245,000 per kilogram. Crucially, he noted that if prices manage to breach the ₹253,000 per kg level, it could trigger a further rally towards ₹260,000 to ₹270,000 per kg in the coming weeks.
This bullish view is supported by silver's recent price action. Last week, MCX silver surged to ₹252,725 per kg, breaking out of a consolidation range, which technical analysts interpret as the start of a strong bullish trend. On the global COMEX exchange, silver prices witnessed a sharp rebound to $79.79 per ounce. Its immediate support is now seen in the $75–$78 per ounce zone.
Ponmudi R further highlighted that a sustained breakout above the $82 per ounce mark on COMEX could open the path for a rally towards the $85 to $90 per ounce range. He emphasized that supply constraints and green-energy-driven demand are underpinning a broader bull phase for silver, suggesting that any price corrections are likely to be shallow and short-lived.
In summary, a confluence of geopolitical flashpoints and robust industrial demand is creating a perfect storm for silver prices. Indian investors are advised to monitor the key resistance and support levels closely as markets react to the unfolding events in Iran and the global response.
