Long-Term Stock Picks: Expert Shares 5 Buys Amid Market Volatility
The Indian stock market faces strong selling pressure right now. Renewed concerns over Trump's tariffs, heavy foreign capital outflows, and rising geopolitical uncertainties are weighing on sentiment. Mixed third-quarter earnings have failed to lift the mood. Investors remain cautious ahead of the Union Budget 2026. They worry the government's focus on fiscal consolidation could lead to measured capital expenditure. This might dent economic growth momentum.
The benchmark Nifty 50 hit a record high of 26,373.20 on January 5. However, it failed to hold that altitude. The index is down nearly 2% in the current month so far. Experts expect the market to remain stock-specific in the short term. The ongoing Q3 earnings season and global uncertainties drive this view. They say investors should buy stocks with healthy fundamentals on dips at this juncture for the long term.
Uttam Kumar Srimal, Senior Research Analyst at Axis Securities, has recommended five stocks to buy for the long term. Let's examine these picks in detail.
Stock Picks for Long Term
Bajaj Finance
Previous close: ₹945.95 | Target price: ₹1,200 | Upside potential: 27%
The analyst highlighted that Bajaj Finance reported robust festive season business growth. Strong consumption-led growth during Navratri and Diwali drove this performance. Structural reforms in income tax and GST supported this trend. These reforms lifted consumer sentiment and spurred consumption.
During Q2, credit costs remained elevated. Stress in the two-wheeler/three-wheeler and MSME portfolios drove this increase. Management indicated the rise in gross non-performing assets had a seasonal component. However, MSME and the captive business contributed more significantly.
Bajaj Finance has taken corrective actions in MSME. It expects credit costs to taper through the second half. The captive two-wheeler/three-wheeler book is being run down. Its nearly 9% contribution to credit costs will likely fall meaningfully in H2 and further in FY27.
"We expect Bajaj Finance to continue its growth trajectory," said Srimal. He projects consistent, nearly 24-25% CAGR AUM growth over the medium term. Growth will resume from FY27 onwards. Contribution from core existing products and a further push from new product scale-up will drive this. Srimal expects Bajaj Finance to deliver strong AUM, NII, and earnings growth of 25%, 25%, and 24% CAGR, respectively, over FY27-28E.
Bharti Airtel
Previous close: ₹2,022.50 | Target price: ₹2,530 | Upside potential: 25%
Srimal underscored that Bharti Airtel leads the industry in average revenue per user. Management expects further improvement from the current ₹256. This compares to Reliance's ₹211.
A more diverse customer base drives this growth. Continued migration from 2G to 4G/5G and increasing adoption of value-added services also contribute. The company remains on track to reach its ARPU target of ₹300. Rising data consumption and deeper rural penetration support this goal.
Bharti Airtel's business fundamentals remain strong. Continued improvements across key metrics are evident. Management anticipates sustained revenue and profit growth. Expanding rural distribution, network investments, and increasing 4G coverage will drive this.
The company also sees strategic opportunities in tower sales, minority investments, and potential IPOs in mobile money. "Bharti Airtel does not anticipate any immediate significant capex despite the ongoing 5G rollout," said Srimal. Management expects capex levels to remain stable. Investments will primarily target broadband expansion, enterprise solutions, and data centres.
State Bank of India (SBI)
Previous close: ₹1,028.35 | Target price: ₹1,135 | Upside potential: 10%
According to Srimal, SBI’s strong credit growth momentum should sustain. Robust performance in home loans drives this. He projects 15-16% growth in this segment. Revival in Xpress Credit and improving growth traction in the corporate segment also contribute.
The bank has visibility of meaningful acceleration in corporate growth. A strong sanction pipeline of ₹7 trillion supports this. Nearly 50% has already received sanction and awaits disbursement. "We pencil-in healthy credit growth sustaining at nearly 13% CAGR over FY26-28E," said Srimal.
In Q2, SBI’s domestic and global net interest margins expanded by 7 basis points quarter-on-quarter. Effective liability management drove this expansion. The bank takes conscious steps towards optimising the cost of funds. It reduces reliance on bulk deposits and focuses on CASA mobilisation.
SBI’s management remains confident of NIMs sustaining at 3%+ over the medium term. Apart from core banking, SBI’s subsidiaries should continue adding further value. The bank has a strong presence in various financial services operations. Most generate stable returns and support overall performance.
"SBI’s performance has been the best amongst the larger banks," said Srimal. The bank remains well-poised to sustain its performance. Management's focus on deepening its liability franchise supports this. Allocating capital to higher return on risk-weighted assets assets, maintaining disciplined pricing, and leveraging tech to drive operating efficiency also help.
Sansera Engineering
Previous close: ₹1,778.20 | Target price: ₹1,950 | Upside potential: 10%
Srimal said Sansera’s aerospace, defence and semiconductor segment continues to exhibit strong performance. This reaffirms its position as a key growth engine for the company. Segment margins remain significantly above the company average. Estimates place them at 25–30%, trending toward the higher end.
The ADS business holds a robust cumulative order backlog exceeding ₹3,950 crore. This lifetime value through FY30 ensures strong multi-year revenue visibility. "Given factors such as a higher sales mix in non-auto ICE components, increased premiumisation trend, a focused approach on improving margin trends, strong ability to generate operating cash flows, and capacity expansion plans, we expect revenue, EBITDA, and PAT to grow at CAGR of 12%,14%, and 21%, respectively, over FY26E-28E," said Srimal.
APL Apollo Tubes
Previous close: ₹1,934.70 | Target price: ₹2,100 | Upside potential: 8.5%
Srimal highlighted that APL Apollo Tubes leads the structural steel tubes market in India. It boasts the largest saleable capacity of 4.5 million tonnes. The company targets expanding its current capacity from 4.5 MTPA to 6.8 MTPA by FY28. This expansion will help it cater to the virgin East Indian market and high-margin international markets.
The company's vision is to expand capacity to 10 MTPA by FY30. This provides a growth tailwind in the longer term. India's structural steel tube market should grow by a 10% CAGR from 9.0MT to 17.3MT over 2024-30.
Out of this, the hot-rolled coil-based structural steel tube market represents APL Apollo's addressable market. It should grow faster at a 20% CAGR over the same period. This increases from 4.5MT to 13.3MT. With expected demand recovery and higher government spending in H2FY26, APL targets gaining sustainable market share and 30% return on capital employed.
"With the growth drivers intact, we believe APL Apollo Tubes is well-positioned to capture India’s infrastructure growth," said Srimal. He projects EBITDA CAGR of 29% over FY25-27E.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of the expert. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions. Market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
