As the calendar year 2025 draws to a close, Dalal Street is gearing up for a crucial week shaped by a flurry of domestic and international economic data. Investors are preparing for potential volatility, with key releases on industrial output, automobile sales, and global central bank signals set to dictate market sentiment in the limited trading sessions remaining.
A Week Packed with Domestic and Global Triggers
Market experts anticipate trading to remain largely range-bound but volatile, underpinned by significant data points. Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking Ltd, highlighted that this week marks the transition into 2026 and is likely to see heightened movement due to the December futures and options (F&O) expiry. On the domestic front, all eyes will be on India's Industrial Production (IIP) data for November and the final HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reading.
"Global factors would play an equally important role," Mishra added. Investors worldwide will scrutinize signals from the United States, particularly the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and details related to the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. These developments are poised to influence near-term expectations around global growth, liquidity conditions, and overall risk appetite.
Auto Sales and Consumption Trends in the Spotlight
Another critical dataset for the Indian market will be the November automobile sales numbers. According to Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, these figures, alongside the IIP data, will offer vital insights into domestic consumption trends. The focus will be on whether the surge in auto demand witnessed after the GST rationalisation is sustaining as the country moves into the new calendar year 2026.
Ponmudi noted that with only a handful of trading sessions left in 2025, Indian equity markets are expected to remain range-bound but with a constructive bias. The market's near-term direction will be heavily guided by this influx of economic information.
Building on a Cautious Previous Week
This data-centric week follows a cautious, holiday-shortened period for Indian equities. Last week's trading was marked by thin volumes, marginal profit-taking, and continued outflows of foreign funds. Despite the tentative mood, the benchmarks managed to eke out gains. The BSE Sensex advanced by 112.09 points or 0.13%, while the Nifty 50 rose by 75.9 points or 0.29%.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research for Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, echoed the sentiment, stating that India's monthly auto sales and key overseas indicators will be among the primary data points tracked by investors throughout the week. Internationally, apart from the Fed minutes, data such as US initial jobless claims and manufacturing PMI readings from the US and China could also sway global market sentiment.
In summary, Dalal Street stands at a pivotal point, navigating the final trading days of the year. The confluence of domestic industrial and consumption data with pivotal global central bank cues is expected to create a potentially volatile but defining environment for investors heading into 2026.
