In a historic shift for Indian financial markets, the Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (MCX) has, for the first time, recorded a higher monthly average daily turnover (ADT) for its futures contracts than the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd (NSE) recorded for its stock futures. This milestone, achieved in December 2025, was powered by a spectacular rally in precious metals, particularly silver.
The Bullion-Driven Surge
The ADT for MCX futures contracts soared to ₹93,929 crore in December 2025. This figure decisively surpassed the NSE stock futures contracts' ADT of ₹72,515 crore for the same period. The primary engine behind this surge was the bullion segment, where silver dramatically outshone gold.
Silver futures alone contributed an ADT of ₹41,370 crore, accounting for a dominant 44% of MCX's total turnover. Gold futures followed with an ADT of ₹32,426 crore, making up 35%. On a standalone basis, the combined bullion futures ADT of ₹73,796 crore was enough to eclipse the entire NSE stock futures turnover.
What Fueled the Precious Metals Rally?
Analysts point to a confluence of factors that drove investors towards gold and silver. A significant supply-demand imbalance is anticipated in silver, with global demand estimated at 1-1.2 billion ounces against a supply of only 800 million ounces in 2026. Meanwhile, gold benefited from its traditional safe-haven status amid global economic uncertainty triggered by US tariffs and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
This led to a sharp appreciation in contract prices. From April to December 2025 (FY26), the average price of active gold and silver futures on MCX jumped by 47% each year-on-year. By December, the average price for active gold futures reached ₹1.08 lakh per 10 grams, while silver active futures hit ₹1.29 lakh per kilogram.
The frenzy also had a direct impact on MCX's share price, which rocketed to a 52-week high of ₹2,278 on January 2, 2026—a staggering 158% increase from its low of ₹881.63 in March 2025.
Is the Momentum Sustainable?
Market experts, however, caution that the exuberance seen in December may not be a permanent feature. Amit Chandra, Vice-President of Research at HDFC Securities, noted that the market is not factoring in a continuation of December's run rate. Street estimates project MCX's futures ADT to be around ₹56,500 crore for FY27, up from an estimated ₹51,500 crore for FY26 but still significantly below the December peak.
Shekhar Bhandari, President at Kotak Mahindra Bank, expects more modest returns of 20% for gold and 25% for silver in 2026, lower than the 47% surge witnessed in the first nine months of FY26.
Narinder Wadhwa, founder of SKI Capital, attributed part of the turnover jump to investors shifting from a relatively flat equity market—where the Nifty rose only 5.2% in the December quarter—to the high-flying precious metals. He believes renewed interest in equities in 2026 could moderate the frenzy for bullion.
While this event marks a significant moment for commodity trading in India, analysts broadly agree that the bullion-driven turnover is likely to moderate in line with expected returns, moving away from the exceptional highs of December 2025.
