NALSO Shares Continue Bull Run, Hit Fresh All-Time High
Shares of National Aluminium Company Limited (NALCO), a prominent public sector undertaking in the aluminium industry, maintained their upward trajectory for the fourth consecutive trading session on Thursday, November 13. The stock climbed 2% to reach a historic peak of ₹271.90 per share, resulting in an impressive four-day cumulative gain of 16%.
Strong Quarterly Performance Drives Momentum
The recent acceleration in NALCO's stock price follows the company's outstanding September quarter results that surpassed market expectations. The robust performance prompted several brokerage firms to revise their target prices upward, reflecting optimism about sustained demand for alumina and favorable pricing conditions.
NALCO reported consolidated revenue of ₹4,292 crore for Q2FY26, representing a 7% year-on-year increase and 13% quarter-on-quarter growth. The company's EBITDA stood at ₹1,926 crore, surging 24% compared to the same period last year, primarily driven by higher alumina sales.
The company demonstrated exceptional cost management, effectively controlling raw material, employee, and power expenses. Net profit witnessed a substantial 37% jump to ₹1,430 crore, supported by increased other income and reduced depreciation and amortization costs. Additionally, NALCO declared its first interim dividend of ₹4 per share for FY26.
Brokerages Revise Targets Amid Expansion Plans
Following the strong quarterly results, Axis Securities maintained its 'Buy' rating on NALCO while elevating the target price to ₹265, valuing the company at 6.0x September 2027 estimated EBITDA. Prabhudas Lilladher also increased its target price to ₹281 while retaining a 'Buy' recommendation. Meanwhile, Motilal Oswal maintained a 'Neutral' stance with a target price of ₹250 per share.
Analysts highlighted NALCO's timely expansion initiatives, particularly the ramp-up of the 5th stream alumina refinery with 1 million tonnes per annum capacity by FY27. The company has planned a total capital expenditure of ₹30,000 crore for a 0.5 MTPA smelter and 1,080 MW captive power plant, with significant increases expected from FY28. The expansion will follow a capital structure with a 70:30 leverage ratio.
Price Outlook and Market Recovery
During Q2FY26, alumina prices averaged $360 per tonne, with current spot prices hovering around $320–$340 per tonne. Company management anticipates prices to remain at similar levels during the second half of FY26, citing historical trends. The slight softening in prices is attributed to new refinery capacity becoming operational in Indonesia and China, along with some smelting capacity restrictions that have increased alumina availability.
NALCO's share price has demonstrated a remarkable recovery, gaining 96.3% from its April low of ₹137.75. After ending a five-month losing streak in May with a 15% surge, the stock continued its rally amid rising global commodity prices, easing geopolitical tensions, and a softer US dollar. The stock has advanced another 15% in the current month, positioning itself for potential third consecutive year of gains if the momentum persists.
