Oil Markets See Fourth Consecutive Monthly Decline
Global crude oil markets experienced downward pressure on Friday as investors reassessed geopolitical risk premiums amid prolonged Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations. Market participants are closely watching the upcoming OPEC meeting for indications about potential production adjustments that could influence future price directions.
Price Movements and Trading Details
Brent crude futures for January delivery settled at $63.20 per barrel, marking a slight decline of 14 cents or 0.22%. The more actively traded February contract closed at $62.38, down 49 cents from Thursday's closing price. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled at $58.55 per barrel, representing a minor drop of 10 cents or 0.17% from Wednesday's settlement.
Trading in WTI futures resumed after being temporarily suspended due to a system outage at CME Group, which operators attributed to cooling problems at CyrusOne data centers. There was no settlement for WTI on Thursday because of the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States.
Longest Losing Streak Since 2023
Despite showing approximately 1% gains for the week, both major crude benchmarks recorded their fourth consecutive monthly decline. This represents the longest continuous losing streak since 2023, primarily driven by expectations of increased global supply putting downward pressure on prices.
Janiv Shah, an analyst at Rystad, commented that while strong fuel refining profit margins have supported crude demand in certain regions, "the bearish impact of an expected oil surplus is pressuring prices."
Supporting these concerns, recent data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration revealed that American oil production reached record levels in September. Output increased by 44,000 barrels per day to achieve a new record of 13.84 million barrels per day, intensifying worries about market oversupply.
Market Outlook and Analyst Expectations
A Reuters survey involving 35 economists and analysts indicated that respondents now anticipate Brent crude to average $62.23 per barrel in 2026, down from October's projection of $63.15. The benchmark has maintained an average price of $68.80 per barrel throughout 2025 according to LSEG data.
Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, noted in a Friday statement that "futures had been anticipating some sort of a peace agreement which has kept pressure on prices." He added that "no agreement will likely mean even tighter sanctions on Russia's oil exports."
Earlier in the week, oil prices experienced sharp declines amid signals that Ukraine and Russia might be nearing a peace deal. However, prices recovered during the past three trading sessions as negotiations continued without reaching a final agreement.
OPEC Meeting and Saudi Price Adjustments
All attention now turns to Sunday's OPEC meeting, where sources indicate the organization is likely to maintain current output levels. According to two delegates from the group and another source familiar with the discussions, OPEC is expected to agree on a mechanism for assessing member countries' maximum production capacity.
In related developments, market sources revealed that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, plans to reduce its January crude prices for Asian buyers for the second consecutive month. This would bring prices to their lowest level in five years, reflecting pressure from abundant supplies and the ongoing surplus outlook in global markets.
