Market Expert Shares Trading Strategy for Volatile Conditions
Market turbulence continues to grip Indian equities with no clear direction for major indices. Investors remain cautious on the sidelines while stock-specific action intensifies. Trading-oriented behavior dominates the current market scenario.
Recent Market Performance
On 14 January 2026, Indian equities experienced sharp volatility. Benchmark indices declined amid persistent foreign fund outflows and weak global cues. The Sensex fell 244.98 points to close at 83,382.71. The Nifty declined 66.70 points to settle at 25,665.60.
Foreign institutional investors continued their selling streak. They offloaded equities worth ₹1,499.81 crore on Tuesday. This marked the seventh consecutive session of net outflows in January. The sustained selling pressure weighed heavily on large-cap stocks.
Global Market Context
Asian markets traded lower with Shanghai's SSE Composite in negative territory. US indices ended overnight in the red, reinforcing weak global cues. Concerns over US tariff policies intensified ahead of a Supreme Court ruling. President Trump's warning about potential tariffs on countries trading with Iran heightened geopolitical risks.
Technical Outlook for Indian Markets
The Nifty shows sustained bearish pressure on every rally. The index appears inclined for downward bias as trends struggle to move higher. Sector rotation continues but indices have become divergent.
HDFC Bank faced significant stress ahead of its Q3 numbers. While the stock couldn't impact market conditions much, trends were expected to reach the upper end of the value resistance zone. Indicators showed signs of tiring out.
The Bank Nifty's rise appears to be struggling. Bearish pressure emerges at higher levels, causing attempts to hold gains to fizzle out. Currently, a lack of triggers keeps trends from recovering swiftly.
The Nifty Bank needs to hold above 59,000 for bulls to attempt a rebound. Once 59,000 is exceeded, stock-specific action with divergent views across component stocks could emerge. PSU Banks perform better while erratic vibes from the private sector make recovery difficult for the Nifty Bank.
This situation could spill over to other sectors including auto, realty, and finance. Despite Monday showing some recovery signs, Bank Nifty's inability to clear the 60,100 mark seems limited in this curtailed week.
The Nifty needs to move above 25,900 for bullish revival. This level represents immediate resistance and the maximum pain point that continues to halt progress. Open Interest data clearly indicates hurdles at higher levels.
Traders should track a 30-minute range breakout on Friday. Above this level, they could consider creating some long positions. Since indices aren't showing much decline, participating in stock-specific action makes sense.
Bearishness hasn't been able to drag the index much lower. The Nifty needs to move decisively below 25,500 for significant downward movement. Open Interest data highlights 25,700 as the next set of support levels.
With ranging markets in play, traders need to be quick in profit-taking. The trend lacks sufficient steam to move strongly in either direction.
Raja Venkatraman's Top Stock Recommendations
Raja Venkatraman, co-founder of NeoTrader, recommends three stocks for trading on 16 January. All buy trades are based on equity rates while sell rates consider F&O positions.
Graphite India Ltd
Current Market Price: ₹632.90
Why Recommended: Graphite India Limited stands as India's leading manufacturer of graphite electrodes, carbon, and specialty graphite products. After a strong run in December 2025, the stock witnessed some profit-taking. A sharp drop to value region support around ₹590 on Tuesday saw a sharp rebound. The revival comes on the back of strong volumes.
Prices have resolutely moved higher, forming a large body candle. The positive Directional Indicator inches higher on intraday timeframes. Consider initiating a multi-week buy position.
Key Metrics:
- P/E Ratio: 40.89
- 52-week High: ₹684.20
- Volume: 4.57 million
Technical Analysis:
- Support: ₹580
- Resistance: ₹730
Risk Factors: Cyclical industry volatility, raw material price fluctuations, intense competition, and margin pressure.
Trading Strategy:
- Buy Above: ₹635
- Stop Loss: ₹600
- Target Price: ₹720 (2 months)
Hindalco Industries Ltd
Current Market Price: ₹955.35
Why Recommended: Hindalco Industries Limited serves as the metals flagship of the Aditya Birla Group. The company operates as a global leader in aluminium and copper, functioning as a fully integrated metals powerhouse from mining to finished products.
The stock reacted into the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen bands, then recovered to form a nice V-shaped revival. A strong long body candle around these bands suggests potential upside if the market rebounds. A rise in the Directional Indicator indicates potential for long opportunities with pushes to higher levels.
Key Metrics:
- P/E Ratio: 30.02
- 52-week High: ₹970.60
- Volume: 7.05 million
Technical Analysis:
- Support: ₹890
- Resistance: ₹1,100
Risk Factors: Heavy dependence on volatile London Metal Exchange aluminium and copper prices, significant capital expenditure requirements.
Trading Strategy:
- Buy Above: ₹960
- Stop Loss: ₹925
- Target Price: ₹1,050 (2 months)
Bank of India Ltd
Current Market Price: ₹152.87
Why Recommended: Bank of India represents a major Indian public sector bank established in 1906 and nationalized in 1969. The bank offers a wide range of retail, corporate, and rural banking services.
Prices consolidated into strong cloud support, creating a nice rounding pattern that fueled a strong surge on Wednesday. The upthrust could result in continued upward drive. The revival has surpassed the cloud region with strong upside emerging in the last trading session.
Key Metrics:
- P/E Ratio: 6.99
- 52-week High: ₹153.20
- Volume: 16.84 million
Technical Analysis:
- Support: ₹145
- Resistance: ₹170
Risk Factors: Slower-than-expected revenue growth, managing top-level attrition, and efficiently integrating operations.
Trading Strategy:
- Buy Above: ₹153
- Stop Loss: ₹149
- Target Price: ₹158
Raja Venkatraman serves as co-founder of NeoTrader. His SEBI-registered research analyst registration number is INH000016223.
Important Disclaimer: Investments in securities carry market risks. Investors should read all related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM do not guarantee intermediary performance or provide assurance of returns. The views and recommendations in this article belong to individual analysts and do not represent Mint's views. Investors should consult certified experts before making investment decisions.
