SBI Securities' Top Stock Recommendations for the Week Starting February 16, 2026
Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities, has identified Arvind and Bajaj Finance as the top stock picks for the upcoming trading week beginning February 16, 2026. In his weekly market outlook, Shah provides detailed technical analysis and insights into the broader indices, including Nifty and Bank Nifty, highlighting key support and resistance levels amid ongoing market volatility.
Nifty Index Analysis: Struggles at 26000 Mark
The Nifty index faced significant challenges last week, failing to sustain above the psychologically crucial 26000 level, which triggered a fresh round of profit booking. After briefly touching 26009, the index experienced a sharp decline of nearly 550 points in the final two sessions alone, indicating strong supply pressure at higher valuations. This swift reversal underscores deeper underlying shifts in market sentiment.
A major contributor to the downturn was the Nifty IT index, which plummeted by 8% over the week and has declined more than 14% month-to-date, marking it as one of the worst-performing sectors recently. The sell-off has been exacerbated by growing investor concerns over the rapid emergence of AI-led startups, which are perceived as structurally disruptive to traditional IT services. The severity of the decline suggests this may not be a temporary pullback, raising critical questions about whether the sector has adequately priced in evolving risks.
From a technical perspective, the IT sector continues to exhibit strong warning signals. All key constituents of the Nifty IT index are now trading below their major moving averages, with these averages trending firmly downward. Momentum indicators remain deeply bearish, showing no signs of stabilization or reversal. In such an environment, attempts to buy at perceived lows could be premature unless chart patterns begin to show meaningful improvement.
For the broader Nifty, the index has slipped below its 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), reflecting a clear deterioration in both short-term and medium-term trend strength. Notably, the 20-day and 50-day EMAs have started to slope downward, serving as an early yet powerful indication of weakening momentum. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) failed to reclaim the 60 level during the recent pullback and has dipped below its 9-day average, suggesting that upside potential may remain limited for now.
Looking ahead, the 25350–25300 zone is expected to act as immediate support for the Nifty. A decisive break below 25300 could lead to a deeper slide toward 25100, and subsequently the key 24900 level. On the upside, the 50-day EMA zone at 25650–25700 now stands as a stiff resistance barrier and will need to be cleared for the index to regain any meaningful momentum.
Bank Nifty Outlook: Consolidation and Volatility
The Bank Nifty outperformed the frontline indices last week, ending flat despite heightened volatility in the broader market. For most of the week, the index remained confined to a narrow 431-point range, signaling a clear phase of consolidation. However, this stability was disrupted on Friday as the index slipped into a range breakdown, indicating the first signs of weakness after several sessions of subdued price action.
Despite Friday's dip, Bank Nifty continues to hold above all its major moving averages, which remain in an upward trajectory, underscoring that the broader trend structure is still intact. However, momentum indicators and oscillators are pointing towards a sideways-to-neutral bias, suggesting that the index may continue to consolidate before any meaningful directional move emerges.
In the days ahead, the 20-day EMA zone of 60000–59900 will act as immediate support. A sustained breakdown below 59900 could open the gates for further decline towards the 50-day EMA, currently placed near 59467. On the upside, the 60600–60700 zone remains a critical resistance area, and only a decisive close above this band may set the stage for a fresh upward move.
Stock Recommendations: Arvind and Bajaj Finance
Arvind: Arvind has delivered a downward sloping trendline breakout on the weekly chart, supported by strong follow-through price action and rising volumes, which adds credibility to the move. The weekly RSI has jumped from 43 to 65, signaling a sharp improvement in bullish momentum and a shift toward strength territory. The Average Directional Index (ADX) is rising steadily, indicating that trend strength is expanding on the upside. Rising MACD histogram bars further show increasing positive momentum and growing bullish control. Overall, the price structure and indicator alignment suggest the stock is well positioned to extend its upward move in the coming sessions. Hence, it is recommended to accumulate the stock in the zone of 386-383 with a stoploss of 370. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of 420 in the short term.
Bajaj Finance: Bajaj Finance has broken out above a downward sloping trendline on the daily chart, pointing to a potential shift from correction to a fresh uptrend. On the weekly chart, a three outside up candle pattern is visible, where a strong bullish candle fully engulfs the prior bearish candle and is followed by further upside, a classic bullish reversal structure. The RSI has surged from 39 to 56 in three sessions, reflecting sharp momentum recovery. In the ADX, the DI+ crossing above DI− shows bullish directional strength is building. Meanwhile, shrinking red MACD histogram bars indicate that downside momentum is fading and buyers are gradually taking control. Hence, it is recommended to accumulate the stock in the zone of 1025-1035 with a stoploss of 1000. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of 1100 in the short term.
Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes, or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India.
