India's banking titans - State Bank of India (SBI), HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank - continue to form the foundation of the country's financial system and remain the preferred choices for investors with long-term horizons. As credit expansion stabilizes, interest rate outlook evolves, and asset quality shows improvement, investors are keenly evaluating which of these three banking behemoths provides the optimal combination of stability, growth potential, and valuation attractiveness for the coming years.
Performance Analysis: SBI Emerges as Clear Outperformer
Recent stock performance reveals distinct patterns among the three banking giants. HDFC Bank has demonstrated steady but moderate returns across various time frames. The stock has gained 14.76% over the past year, with 3.60% growth in six months, 1.72% in three months, and a marginal 0.44% increase in one month. This performance pattern indicates stability rather than aggressive upward movement, keeping the stock largely range-bound.
In sharp contrast, ICICI Bank displays noticeable near-term weakness despite its long-term strength. The bank's stock has managed only 7.07% growth over one year, while showing declines of 5.61% over six months, 4.73% over three months, and 0.68% over one month. These figures highlight persistent short-term pressure on the stock.
State Bank of India stands out as the strongest performer among the three lenders across all time horizons. The public sector banking giant has surged 18.94% over one year, with impressive gains of 22.78% over six months, 18.91% over three months, and 7.31% over just one month. Its consistently superior returns across all durations position SBI as the clear outperformer, significantly ahead of both HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank in medium and short-term momentum.
Fundamental Perspective: Brokerages Maintain Positive Outlook
Global brokerage firm Jefferies has maintained Buy ratings on all three banks, though it identifies varying upside potential for each.
For HDFC Bank, Jefferies has set a target price of ₹1,200, indicating approximately 20% upside potential. The brokerage expects the bank's loan growth to align with system averages, supported by merger synergies, a robust retail franchise, and a stable deposit base.
ICICI Bank receives the highest projected upside from Jefferies, with a target price of ₹1,760 suggesting nearly 29% growth potential. Jefferies noted that ICICI Bank continues to deliver best-in-class profitability among large private sector peers, citing its risk-adjusted returns and balanced retail/SME growth.
For SBI, the brokerage has established a target price of ₹970, signaling relatively flat upside. However, Jefferies emphasized that SBI's improving return ratios, strong capital adequacy, and extensive deposit franchise make it a steady compounder for long-term investors.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOSL) similarly expresses preference for all three heavyweight banks. The brokerage highlights that these lenders maintain resilient balance sheets, solid capital buffers, and healthy asset quality - characteristics particularly valuable during periods of macroeconomic uncertainty.
In their latest assessment, MOSL stated: In light of these sectoral headwinds, we continue to prefer ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, and SBI. These banks stand out due to their strong balance sheets, healthy PCR, and relatively better growth prospects, which are expected to help mitigate downside risks to earnings.
Technical Analysis and Investment Strategy
According to Om Ghawalkar, Market Analyst at Share.Market, the final selection depends largely on an investor's specific priorities - whether growth, stability, or valuation takes precedence.
ICICI Bank appears best suited for growth-focused investors seeking consistent retail credit expansion and stable asset quality.
HDFC Bank remains a premium franchise with strong digital capabilities and a developing bullish cup-and-handle pattern, suggesting potential breakout following consolidation.
SBI offers the best value proposition and strongest market momentum, having gained more than 15% since September 2025 and demonstrating impressive relative strength despite its public sector undertaking status.
From a technical analysis perspective, experts favor SBI as the strongest candidate for long-term accumulation.
Amruta Shinde, Research Analyst at Choice Broking, emphasized SBI's robust chart structure, noting that the stock maintains a sustained higher-high, higher-low pattern. She stated: Based on the current technical setup, SBI remains the strongest contender among the three for long-term investors.
Shinde added that SBI trades comfortably above key exponential moving averages, and a breakout above ₹980 could unlock further upside toward ₹1,030. She also observed that HDFC Bank shows encouraging recovery signs but remains range-bound between ₹975-₹1,020, requiring a decisive move above ₹1,020 to confirm strength. Meanwhile, ICICI Bank displays weaker momentum, trading below short and medium-term EMAs, and needs to break above resistance levels to regain leadership position.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations presented are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. Investors should consult certified experts before making any investment decisions.
