The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are projected to commence trading on a flat note this Thursday. This cautious opening comes in response to weak global market signals and mixed performances across international exchanges. Asian markets displayed a varied trend, while the US stock market concluded mostly lower overnight, driven by persistent selling pressure in technology stocks.
Previous Session Recap and Market Sentiment
On Wednesday, the Indian equity markets managed to secure minor gains despite significant selling activity in IT stocks. The Sensex advanced by 78.56 points, equivalent to 0.09%, closing at 83,817.69. Simultaneously, the Nifty 50 increased by 48.45 points, or 0.19%, settling at 25,776.00.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research for Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, provided an optimistic outlook. He stated, "We expect Indian markets to remain firm with positive bias, with sector/stock specific action, driven by recent trade deals (US and EU), Union Budget announcements and the ongoing Q3 earnings season." This perspective highlights the underlying strength and potential catalysts for the domestic market.
Global Market Influences and Key Indicators
Asian Markets Performance
Asian markets traded predominantly lower on Thursday, mirroring overnight losses on Wall Street triggered by a sell-off in technology stocks. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose marginally by 0.15%, while the Topix gained 0.47%, achieving a record high. In contrast, South Korea's Kospi declined sharply by 2.71%, and the Kosdaq fell 1.79%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index futures indicated a lower opening, reflecting the subdued sentiment.
Gift Nifty Trends
The Gift Nifty was trading around the 25,861 level, representing a premium of nearly 12 points from the Nifty futures' previous close. This movement suggests a flat start for the Indian stock market indices, aligning with broader global cues.
Wall Street Dynamics
The US stock market ended lower on Wednesday, weighed down by selling in technology stocks amid concerns over expensive valuations and the artificial intelligence boom. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.53% to 49,501.30. However, the S&P 500 declined 0.51% to 6,882.72, and the Nasdaq closed 1.51% lower at 22,904.58.
Notable stock movements included Nvidia falling 3.41%, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) plunging 17.31%, Alphabet dropping 2.16%, and Tesla declining 3.78%. Palantir shares slumped almost 12%. On the positive side, Apple's share price gained 2.60%, Super Micro Computer jumped 13.8%, and Eli Lilly shares rallied about 10%.
Geopolitical and Economic Developments
Trump-Xi Discussions
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping engaged in a detailed conversation on Wednesday, discussing trade and geopolitical developments, including Taiwan. This call preceded a planned face-to-face meeting in April, with Trump describing it as "excellent" and "long and thorough."
Russia-Ukraine Peace Negotiations
Top Ukrainian negotiator Rustem Umerov reported that the first day of meetings in Abu Dhabi between Ukrainian, Russian, and US teams was "substantive and productive." He emphasized that the discussions focused on concrete steps and practical solutions, according to Reuters.
US Economic Data
US private payrolls increased less than expected in January, with private employment rising by 22,000 jobs after a downwardly revised 37,000 increase in December. Economists had forecast a gain of 48,000 jobs. Additionally, the US services sector remained steady in January, with the ISM non-manufacturing purchasing managers index unchanged at 53.8, slightly above the forecasted 53.5.
Corporate Earnings and Commodity Markets
Alphabet Q4 Earnings Report
Google parent Alphabet reported strong fourth-quarter results, with consolidated revenue reaching $113.83 billion, an 18% increase from the same period in 2024. This figure surpassed analyst estimates of $111.43 billion. Net income rose by 30% to $34.5 billion, and earnings per share increased by 31% to $2.82, beating estimates of $2.63. The company plans to target capital expenditure of $175 billion to $185 billion this year, significantly higher than the $91.45 billion in 2025.
Currency and Commodity Movements
The US dollar steadied ahead of interest rate decisions from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. The US dollar index rose 0.2% to 96.671. The euro held steady at $1.1800, the British pound was flat at $1.3650, and the US dollar traded at 156.92 yen.
Gold prices climbed above $5,000 an ounce, recovering some losses from previous sessions. Spot gold price increased 1.2% to $5,022.61 per ounce, while silver rallied 2.3% to $90.20. Crude oil prices declined after Iran confirmed negotiations with the US, with Brent crude falling 1.22% to $68.61 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropping 1.15% to $64.39.
These multifaceted factors collectively shape the current landscape for the Indian stock market, influencing investor sentiment and trading strategies as the day progresses.
