The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are anticipated to commence trading on a lower note this Friday, influenced by mixed cues from global markets. The trends observed on Gift Nifty further reinforce expectations of a subdued opening for the domestic benchmark index. Specifically, Gift Nifty was trading around the 25,435 level, marking a discount of approximately 101 points compared to the previous close of Nifty futures.
Recent Market Performance and Technical Outlook
On Thursday, the Indian equity markets concluded the session on a positive note, extending their upward trajectory for the third consecutive day. The benchmark Nifty 50 successfully reclaimed the 25,400 level during this rally. The Sensex advanced by 221.69 points, or 0.27%, closing at 82,566.37, while the Nifty 50 gained 76.15 points, or 0.30%, settling at 25,418.90.
Sensex Prediction and Analysis
From a technical perspective, Sensex is maintaining an uptrend continuation pattern on intraday charts. On daily charts, it has formed a bullish candle, indicating potential for further upward movement from current levels. Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, provided insights into key levels for traders.
"For trend-following traders, 82,200 and 81,700 are now critical support zones. As long as Sensex trades above these levels, the pullback formation is likely to persist. On the upside, 82,800 serves as an immediate resistance point for bullish momentum. A decisive breakout above 82,800 could propel the index towards 83,100 to 83,300. Conversely, a drop below 81,700 would make the uptrend vulnerable," Chouhan explained.
Nifty 50 Options and Derivatives Data
Derivatives data reveals significant activity in options trading, with heavy call writing observed at the 25,500 strike and substantial put writing at the 25,300 strike. This establishes a key near-term pivot range for the index. Hitesh Tailor, Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking, advised caution for traders.
"Traders should remain vigilant near crucial support levels and await a confirmed breakout above resistance before initiating fresh directional positions," Tailor noted.
Nifty 50 Technical Forecast
Nifty 50 formed a small-bodied bullish candle with a long lower shadow on the daily chart, highlighting dip-buying interest and reinforcing the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as a reliable support zone. Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, commented on the market action.
"A reasonable bull candle with a long lower shadow was formed on the daily chart. Technically, this signals an attempt at a decisive breakout above the crucial overhead resistance around 25,400 to 25,500 levels. This is a positive indication, and a sustainable move above this hurdle could confirm the formation of a crucial bottom reversal around 24,900 levels," Shetti stated.
According to Shetti, the underlying short-term trend for Nifty 50 remains positive. A sustainable move above 25,500 could potentially open targets around 25,800 to 26,000 in the near term, with immediate support placed at 25,300.
Expert Views on Nifty 50 Momentum
Nilesh Jain, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at Centrum Broking Ltd., observed that the overall structure of Nifty 50 appears constructive, with potential for a follow-up move towards the 25,500 to 25,600 zone.
"The immediate resistance is placed at the 100-day Moving Average near 25,600, and a decisive breakout above this level would confirm a short-term bottom. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reversed from oversold territory and is trending higher, indicating improving momentum. However, ahead of the Budget, markets are expected to remain volatile within a broader range of 25,100 to 25,600," Jain added.
Bank Nifty Prediction and Performance
The Bank Nifty index surged 359.05 points, or 0.60%, closing at 59,957.85 on Thursday, forming a bullish candle that reflects steady participation at higher levels. Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, highlighted its strength.
"Bank Nifty index remains one of the strongest segments in the market and is now just 0.80% away from its all-time high. The daily RSI, currently at 56, is trending higher, indicating improving momentum and room for further upside. Looking ahead, the index is expected to continue its northward trajectory, supported by strong price structure and healthy momentum signals," Shah said.
Shah expects Bank Nifty to move towards 60,500, followed by 61,100 in the short term. On the downside, the 20-day EMA zone of 59,500 to 59,400 will act as a crucial support area for the index.
Additional Technical Insights on Bank Nifty
Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities, pointed out that the Bank Nifty index remains above all major moving averages, with the 20-day average near 59,420 serving as a short-term cushion.
"The RSI is placed around 56, indicating improving momentum. The Directional Movement Index (DMI) setup shows the positive directional line above the negative line, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) remains near 18, suggesting moderate trend strength. On the downside, 59,650 is the first support level, followed by 59,500. On the upside, 60,250 is the immediate hurdle, followed by the all-time high of 60,437.35," Mehra explained.
Mehra believes that as long as Bank Nifty sustains above 59,400, the short-term outlook remains favourable, though volatility may persist around resistance zones.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations expressed above are those of individual analysts or broking companies and not of Mint. Investors are advised to consult certified experts before making any investment decisions.
