The Indian stock market is poised for a cautious start on Friday, with benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 anticipated to open lower. This outlook comes amidst mixed signals from global markets and heightened investor vigilance ahead of the Union Budget 2026. While Asian markets showed gains, US stocks ended mostly lower overnight, primarily due to selling pressure in technology stocks.
Recent Market Performance and Economic Survey Insights
On Thursday, the Indian equity markets extended their winning streak for the third consecutive session. This rally was bolstered by the Economic Survey 2026, which projected that the Indian economy would maintain robust growth despite ongoing geopolitical challenges. The Sensex advanced by 221.69 points, or 0.27%, closing at 82,566.37. Similarly, the Nifty 50 increased by 76.15 points, or 0.30%, settling at 25,418.90.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research for Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, commented on the market sentiment. He stated, "Markets are expected to remain range-bound, with stock-specific action likely to dominate in the run-up to the Budget 2026." This indicates that investors may focus on individual company performances rather than broad market trends as the budget announcement approaches.
Key Global Market Cues Influencing Indian Indices
Asian Markets Show Positive Momentum
Asian markets traded higher on Friday, influenced by remarks from US President Donald Trump regarding his upcoming selection for the next Federal Reserve chair. Key Asian indices performed as follows:
- Japan's Nikkei 225 rose by 0.25%
- The Topix index gained 0.58%
- South Korea's Kospi rallied 1.23%
- The Kosdaq added 0.99%
However, futures for Hong Kong's Hang Seng index pointed towards a lower opening, suggesting some regional divergence.
Gift Nifty Indicates Negative Sentiment
The Gift Nifty was trading around the 25,464 level, representing a discount of nearly 71 points compared to the previous close of Nifty futures. This typically signals a negative opening for Indian stock market indices, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.
Wall Street Experiences Tech-Led Decline
US stock markets ended mostly lower on Thursday, dragged down by significant selling in technology stocks. The performance of major US indices was mixed:
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 55.96 points, or 0.11%, to 49,071.56
- The S&P 500 fell 9.02 points, or 0.13%, to 6,969.01
- The Nasdaq Composite dropped 172.33 points, or 0.72%, closing at 23,685.12
Notable stock movements included a 10% slump in Microsoft, while Apple shares rose 0.72% and Nvidia gained 0.52%. Tesla shares declined by 3.45%, and other tech stocks like Salesforce, Oracle, Adobe, and Datadog also saw declines ranging from 2.2% to 8.8%.
Other Significant Global Developments
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Announcement
US President Donald Trump announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to refrain from firing on Kyiv for one week due to extreme cold weather conditions. Trump stated at a Cabinet meeting, "I personally asked President Putin not to fire into Kyiv and various towns for a week, and he agreed to do that," citing the "extraordinary cold" in the region.
US Government Shutdown Averted
President Trump and Senate Democrats reached a tentative deal to prevent a disruptive US government shutdown. According to Bloomberg reports, negotiations continue regarding new limits on immigration raids that have sparked national concern.
US Jobless Claims Data
The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits decreased slightly last week. Initial claims dropped by 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 209,000 for the week ended January 24. The previous week's claims were revised upward by 10,000 to 210,000. Economists surveyed by Reuters had anticipated 205,000 claims for the latest week.
Apple Reports Strong Quarterly Results
Apple announced record-high earnings for the December quarter, driven by surging iPhone sales in greater China. The company reported quarterly revenue of $143.8 billion, marking a 16% increase from the previous year and surpassing analysts' average estimate of $138.48 billion. Net profit stood at $42.1 billion with a gross margin of 48.2%.
For its fiscal second quarter ending March 2026, Apple forecasts revenue growth of 13% to 16%, exceeding the 10% rise analysts expected. The company also projects a gross margin between 48% and 49% for the upcoming quarter.
Commodities and Currency Movements
Gold and Silver Prices Rally
Gold prices resumed their upward trajectory after a brief decline, rising 1.3% to $5,447.18 per ounce. Silver prices advanced by 2.4%, reaching $118.43 per ounce.
Dollar Index Trends
The US dollar is on track for its second consecutive weekly decline. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, increased by 0.2% to 96.35, reducing its weekly slide to 1.1%. The euro declined 0.2% to $1.194, the yen weakened 0.17% to 153.39 per dollar, and Sterling fell 0.1% to $1.3791.
Crude Oil Prices Retreat
Crude oil prices fell after surging more than 3% in the previous session. Brent crude oil declined by 0.10% to $70.64 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped 0.32% to $65.22 per barrel.
As investors navigate these diverse global cues and await the Union Budget 2026, market participants are advised to monitor developments closely for potential impacts on portfolio strategies.
