Indian Stock Market Braces for Lower Opening as Economic Survey 2025-2026 Looms
The Indian stock market is gearing up for a potentially subdued start on Thursday, with benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 expected to open lower. This cautious sentiment stems from a combination of mixed global market signals and the highly anticipated release of the Economic Survey 2025-2026 later today. The survey, a precursor to the Union Budget 2026 scheduled for Sunday, February 1, is set to be tabled in Parliament by Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, adding a layer of domestic focus to the trading day.
Global Market Influences and Previous Session Performance
On the global front, Asian markets presented a mixed picture on Thursday, reacting to the latest policy decision from the US Federal Reserve. In contrast, US stock markets concluded Wednesday's session mostly higher, buoyed by the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged. This divergence in international trends is contributing to the uncertain outlook for Indian equities at the opening bell.
Reflecting on the previous trading day, the Indian stock market ended Wednesday with robust gains, driven by widespread buying activity. The optimism was partly fueled by positive developments surrounding a potential India-EU free trade agreement. The Sensex surged by 487.20 points, or 0.60%, closing at 82,344.68, while the Nifty 50 advanced 167.35 points, or 0.66%, to settle at 25,342.75.
Expert Insights and Key Market Indicators
Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd., noted, "The positive market momentum observed over the past two sessions may persist, supported by favorable sentiments linked to the India-EU FTA discussions and the upcoming Budget presentation. However, investors will also be closely monitoring global cues and the ongoing third-quarter earnings season for further direction."
Key indicators point towards a negative start for Indian indices. The Gift Nifty was trading around the 25,364 level, representing a discount of approximately 86 points from the Nifty futures' previous close, signaling potential downward pressure at the open.
Detailed Global Market Cues and Economic Data
Asian Markets: Trading was mixed, with Japan's Nikkei 225 gaining 0.18% while the Topix declined by 0.57%. South Korea's Kospi jumped 1.09%, and the Kosdaq rallied impressively by 2.69%. Futures for Hong Kong's Hang Seng index suggested a lower opening.
Wall Street: US stocks ended mostly higher, with the S&P 500 index briefly surpassing the 7,000-point milestone for the first time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up by 12.19 points (0.02%) to 49,015.60, the S&P 500 eased slightly by 0.57 points (0.01%) to 6,978.03, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 40.35 points (0.17%) to 23,857.45. Notable stock movements included gains for Nvidia (1.6%), Micron Technology (6.1%), Intel (11.04%), and Texas Instruments (9.9%), while Apple fell 0.71% and Tesla declined 0.10%.
US Fed Policy: The Federal Reserve, as anticipated, kept interest rates steady in the target range of 3.5% to 3.75%, offering little clarity on the timing of future rate cuts.
IIP Data: In a positive domestic development, India's industrial production grew at a robust 7.8% in December 2025, marking its fastest pace in over two years, compared to 3.7% in December 2024.
Corporate Earnings Highlights and Commodity Trends
Tesla Q4 Results: Tesla reported a significant 61% drop in fourth-quarter profits to $840 million, attributed to lower auto sales, with revenues declining 3.1% to $24.9 billion. The company's CFO indicated a 2026 capital spending budget exceeding $20 billion.
Microsoft Q2 Earnings: Microsoft posted strong results, with total sales increasing 17% to $81.27 billion and profit per share at $5.16, surpassing analyst expectations. Its Azure cloud unit saw 38% revenue growth.
Samsung Q4 Results: Samsung Electronics reported a more than tripling of operating profit to a record 20 trillion won ($13.98 billion), driven by surging chip demand, with chip business profit up 470% to 16.4 trillion won.
Gold Prices: Gold prices continued their record-breaking rally, rising 2.1% to $5,511.79 per ounce, as investors sought safe-haven assets amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties.
Crude Oil Prices: Crude oil prices climbed to a four-month high, with Brent crude gaining 1.23% to $68.40 a barrel, following geopolitical tensions involving Iran.
