The domestic benchmark indices, Nifty 50 and Sensex, experienced a decline on Thursday, reversing gains from the previous two sessions that were fueled by optimism surrounding the trade agreement with the European Union. This shift in market sentiment comes as investors turn their focus towards the highly anticipated federal budget, scheduled for announcement on Sunday.
Budget Takes Center Stage
The upcoming budget holds significant importance for providing clear indications about the trajectory of economic growth and corporate profitability within the world's fastest-growing major economy. In preparation for this crucial event, the markets will operate through a special trading session on Sunday, allowing for immediate reaction to the budget announcements.
Market Performance Details
As of 12:24 IST, the Nifty 50 decreased by 0.23% to settle at 25,281.90, while the Sensex fell by 0.21% to reach 82,172.29. This downward movement contributes to what has been a lackluster start to the year 2026 for Indian equities, with the Nifty 50 currently down approximately 3.6% year-to-date.
Global Influences on Indian Markets
The market decline follows the recent decision by the US Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at their current levels, a move that was widely anticipated by market participants. The Fed's stance points towards persistently high inflation coupled with robust economic growth in the United States. Market analysts now anticipate that the next potential rate cut from the Federal Reserve may not occur until the June meeting.
Elevated US interest rates typically make emerging markets like India less attractive to foreign investors, as they strengthen the US dollar and increase yields on US Treasury securities, drawing capital away from riskier assets in developing economies.
Technical Analysis and Market Views
Nagaraj Shetti's Perspective
Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, provided insights into the current market dynamics. According to Shetti, after demonstrating a recovery from recent lows over the past couple of sessions, the Nifty 50 encountered selling pressure near the crucial resistance level of 25,400 on Thursday, resulting in a decline of approximately 160 points.
The overall chart pattern suggests a broader trading range between 24,900 and 25,400 for the market. Shetti indicates that any sustainable bounce from the lower support zone of 25,200-25,100 could potentially drive the Nifty 50 back toward the overhead resistance at 25,400 in the near term.
Short-Term Stock Recommendations
Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities has identified two stocks that present potential buying opportunities for short-term investors:
- Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd (MRPL)
- Buy at: ₹172.50
- Target: ₹183
- Stoploss: ₹166
- Timeframe: 1 week
The oil refinery stock has demonstrated significant upward movement in recent sessions following a period of range-bound trading. The overall chart pattern indicates the formation of a higher bottom before the recent bounce back. Both volume patterns and daily RSI signals suggest a positive outlook for the stock price moving forward.
- Jupiter Wagons Ltd
- Buy at: ₹323.50
- Target: ₹340
- Stoploss: ₹315
- Timeframe: 1 week
After experiencing substantial upward movement from a higher bottom in recent sessions, this railway stock entered a consolidation phase on Thursday. The recent upside breakout of the downward sloping trend line at ₹320 remains intact, and the stock price is expected to bounce back from near the support level, according to the principle of change in polarity.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations presented above are those of individual analysts, experts, and broking companies, and do not represent the opinions of Mint. Investors are strongly advised to consult with certified financial experts before making any investment decisions.
