Indian equity benchmarks kicked off the week on a positive note, opening in the green on Monday. The Nifty50 index started trading above the 26,050 mark, while the BSE Sensex held ground above 85,000.
Opening Bell and Market Levels
At 9:17 AM, the Nifty50 was trading at 26,074.75, registering a gain of 18 points or 0.069%. The BSE Sensex stood at 85,082.51, up by 41 points or 0.048%. This positive opening sets the stage for a week expected to be marked by significant volatility.
A Week of Key Triggers and Heightened Volatility
Market participants are bracing for increased price swings as the calendar year 2025 draws to a close and a new year begins. This period coincides with the December derivatives expiry, which typically amplifies trading activity. Investor sentiment in the near term will be guided by a series of domestic data releases scheduled for the week.
Key figures to watch include:
- November industrial production numbers
- Government budget value figures
- External debt data
- The final HSBC Manufacturing PMI reading
Expert View: Underperformance to End in 2026?
Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited, provided a detailed outlook. He noted that India's stark underperformance compared to most developed and emerging markets has been the standout feature of 2025. However, he believes this trend is poised for a reversal in 2026.
"This underperformance is set to change in 2026 supported by solid fundamentals: India’s macros are in a Goldilocks setting with robust economic growth and a stable financial construct," Dr. Vijayakumar stated. He emphasized that earnings growth is set to recover from Q3 FY26 onwards, a critical factor for market performance.
Despite these favourable conditions, he cautioned that they may not be sufficient to trigger an immediate rally. "A strong rebound in the market needs a trigger like a US-India trade deal with favourable terms for India. There is no clarity yet on when this will happen," he added. Consequently, he anticipates a consolidation phase in the near-term, advising investors to use this period to gradually accumulate high-quality stocks, with a priority on largecaps.
Global Cues and Commodity Movements
Global markets offered mixed signals amid thin holiday trading. World stocks continue to hover near their record highs. In the commodities space, silver prices briefly touched a fresh peak above $80 an ounce before paring gains, with lower liquidity amplifying price movements. The rally was supported by supply constraints, robust industrial demand, and expectations of additional interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve. Platinum also touched a record high during the session.
Oil prices moved higher in early Asian trade due to escalating concerns over Middle East tensions, which raised fears of potential supply disruptions. However, ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war continued to limit gains and maintain a cautious stance among traders.
Institutional Activity
On the domestic institutional front, a divergent trend was observed. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) remained net sellers, offloading shares worth Rs 318 crore on Friday. In contrast, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) provided support to the market with net purchases amounting to Rs 1,772 crore, helping to cushion the impact of foreign outflows.
