The silver market witnessed a dramatic surge last week, with prices posting significant gains and sparking intense speculation about whether the rally can propel the precious metal to historic highs. After initial pressure, silver staged a powerful comeback, setting the stage for a crucial period ahead.
A Week of Volatility and Strong Gains
After facing downward pressure in early sessions, the COMEX silver price concluded the week on a powerful note. It finished at $79.341 per ounce, buoyed by an impressive intraday jump of 5.59% on Friday. This rally was primarily fueled by a weakening US Dollar, which saw investors book profits over the weekend after a period of strength.
The weekly performance was remarkable, with silver registering an 11.27% gain compared to the previous week's close of $71.300 per ounce. In the Indian markets, the MCX silver rates for the March 2026 futures expiry settled near ₹2,52,000 per kg. This upswing, following a retreat from the record peak of $82.37, has market participants eagerly debating the potential for silver to touch the psychological milestones of $100 per ounce globally and ₹3 lakh per kg domestically.
What's Driving the Silver Rally?
Commodity market experts point to a fundamental structural shift in the demand-supply balance as the core reason for the upward trend. Key factors disrupting supply include export disruptions from Peru and Chad, linked to the escalating US-Venezuela conflict, and China's shadow ban on silver exports effective January 1, 2026.
On the demand side, the booming sectors of electric vehicles (EVs), solar energy, and electronic goods are significantly widening the demand-supply gap. However, analysts caution that while the rally is strong, commodity prices are generally cooling, and the silver surge may also be nearing its peak. Yet, they acknowledge the possibility of MCX silver reaching ₹3 lakh per kg and COMEX silver peaking around $100 before topping out.
Amit Goel, Chief Global Strategist at Pace 360, highlighted a specific trigger for last week's rise. "The market anticipated a US Supreme Court decision on Trump's tariffs on Friday," he said. "However, the Court scheduled its next rulings for January 14, 2026. Speculation that the ruling may go against Donald Trump, potentially easing trade war fears, actually fueled uncertainty and boosted silver and gold prices."
Anuj Gupta, Director at Ya Wealth, added that the strong US Dollar initially pressured silver, but profit-booking in the currency later provided a lift to bullion and base metal prices.
Can Silver Prices Reach the Magic Milestones?
When asked about the chances of COMEX silver hitting $100, Amit Goel advised caution. "Every rally tops out, and bullion won't be an exception. We may see a peak by end of February," he stated. He identified $70 as a crucial support level. A close below this, without touching $100, would be a major setback for bullish sentiment.
Goel outlined key resistance levels at $84 and $90. A decisive break above these hurdles could pave the way for silver to peak around or above the $100 mark. For MCX silver, he identified major support at ₹2,30,000. A fall below this could dim prospects of reaching ₹3 lakh. On the upside, hurdles are placed at ₹2,65,000 and ₹2,90,000. A breakout above these in the next one to one-and-a-half months could make the ₹3 lakh target achievable.
Near-Term Market Outlook
Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money, provided a technical perspective. "COMEX Silver is holding firm above its key moving averages after a consolidation breakout. Momentum is buyer-driven, supported by industrial demand and safe-haven flows," he said. He sees the $80–$83 zone potentially inviting profit-booking, but a sustained move above $83 could trigger a move toward $85–$90.
Regarding MCX silver, the Enrich Money expert noted, "MCX Silver is firmly in a bullish channel. Dips are being bought aggressively." He stated that sustained strength above ₹2,48,000 to ₹2,50,000 keeps the upside momentum intact. A breakout beyond ₹2,52,000 to ₹2,55,000 could accelerate gains toward ₹2,60,000 to ₹2,70,000. On the downside, a break below ₹2,44,000 could see the metal test supports between ₹2,43,000 and ₹2,38,000.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies. We advise investors to consult certified experts before making any investment decisions.
