Indian Stock Market Exhibits Cautious Range-Bound Trading on Friday
The Indian equity markets adopted a prudent, range-bound stance during Friday's trading session as market participants digested the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) decision to maintain interest rates unchanged. This move reinforced the central bank's preference for stability, even as global trade visibility improved following recent adjustments to U.S. tariffs. Investor sentiment, however, found some support from regulatory clarity after the RBI indicated that banks would be permitted to extend loans to Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). This development is anticipated to enhance long-term funding visibility for the broader real estate and credit ecosystem.
Domestic Support from Rupee Recovery and Precious Metals Rally
On the domestic front, additional support emerged from a slight recovery in the Indian rupee, which was aided by moderated corporate demand for U.S. dollars. This helped alleviate near-term currency concerns among investors. Concurrently, in the international markets, gold and silver rates opened with a significant upside gap. After a gap-up opening, the COMEX silver rate touched an intraday high of $79.945 per ounce within minutes, registering a gain exceeding 3%. Similarly, COMEX gold reached an intraday high of $5,068.70 per ounce, logging an approximate 1.50% gain shortly after the Opening Bell.
As of 6:25 AM, COMEX gold was trading at $5,043.50 per ounce and COMEX silver at $79.500 per ounce, with both precious metals maintaining substantial gains against their previous closes. Commenting on the outlook for gold and silver, Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market expert, stated, "In the near-term, gold and silver prices are expected to follow the US Dollar and the US-Iran talks. The US Dollar gaining strength against major global currencies is likely to contain the precious metals' rally, whereas any weakness in the greenback is expected to fuel further increases in gold and silver prices."
India-US Trade Deal and Market Expectations
Anticipating a positive opening on Monday at Dalal Street, Sandeep Pandey, Co-founder of Basav Capital, remarked, "The India-US interim trade pact has finally provided some clarity regarding the trade deal. This will eradicate confusion and bring clarity to the minds of investors, whether they are Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), or retail investors. It is also clear that the 25% reciprocal tariff imposed in India on Russian crude oil imports has been removed, and the 25% tariff will drop to 18% once the India-US trade deal is signed and implemented. As markets typically discount events ahead of time, export-oriented segments are expected to attract investor interest on Monday, when the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) reopen after the weekend."
Rupee Outlook and FII-DII Activity
Regarding the Indian rupee's performance against the US dollar, Jateen Trivedi, VP Research — Commodity & Currency at LKP Securities, explained, "The Indian Rupee traded weak by around 35–40 paise, quoting lower after the RBI policy maintained status quo on rates and kept its stance neutral. The lack of any fresh supportive trigger from the policy outcome limited buying interest in the currency. With the U.S. dollar index hovering in a range near 97.70, the near-term trend for the rupee remains sideways, with a broad trading band seen between 90.00 and 91.25."
On Friday, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) once again turned net buyers, purchasing Indian shares worth ₹1,951 crore. However, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) turned net sellers, offloading shares worth ₹1,265 crore in the previous session. Sandeep Pandey added, "The FIIs are expected to look at the Indian stock market after the joint announcement of the India-US interim trade pact. The India-US trade deal is expected to boost the Indian Rupee against the US Dollar as export-oriented companies like auto, gems and jewellery, pharma, chemical, defence, textile, IT, etc., are anticipated to benefit from this deal due to the lowering of tariffs from 50% to 18%."
Technical Outlook for Key Indices
Speaking on the outlook for the Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex, Shrikant Chouhan, Head — Equity Research at Kotak Securities, noted, "We are of the view that the intraday market texture is weak, but a fresh selloff is possible only if 25,600/83,200 is dismissed below. The market could then slip till 25,500-25,350/83,000-82,500. On the flip side, 25,800/83,800 would act as an immediate resistance zone. Above this, it could move up to 25,900-25,925/84,000-84,200."
On the Bank Nifty's outlook, Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said, "The Bank Nifty is currently consolidating above its falling trendline breakout levels and continues to sustain above its short-term 20-day moving average, indicating underlying strength in the index. Momentum indicators also support the bullish view, with RSI holding firmly in a bullish crossover zone. This setup suggests a buy-on-dips strategy can be considered, provided the index sustains above the crucial 59,500 mark. On the downside, immediate support is placed near 59,800 levels, while resistance is seen around the 60,800 zone, where some profit booking may emerge."
Stock Recommendations from Market Experts
Regarding stocks to consider for trading, market experts Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, and Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager of Technical Research at Anand Rathi, recommended five intraday stocks: Torrent Power, Jindal Steel, ITC, Bharti Airtel, and Kotak Mahindra Bank.
Sumeet Bagadia's Stock Recommendations:- Torrent Power: Buy at ₹1429, Target ₹1530, Stop Loss ₹1377. Torrent Power's share price is currently trading at ₹1429 and exhibiting a strong bullish reversal from key support levels. The stock has formed a short-term rounding bottom pattern and maintains a higher high–higher low structure, signaling continuation of upward momentum.
- Jindal Steel: Buy at ₹1189.90, Target ₹1275, Stop Loss ₹1347. Jindal Steel share price is trading near ₹1189.90, displaying a strong bullish setup with a clear transition from consolidation into a powerful upward breakout, following a well-defined Cup-and-Handle pattern.
- ITC: Buy at ₹326, Target ₹342, Stop Loss ₹314. ITC share price has been exhibiting a strong and consistent bullish pattern, indicating sustained investor interest and positive price momentum, with support at ₹314.
- Bharti Airtel: Buy at ₹2038, Target ₹2100, Stop Loss ₹2010. Bharti Airtel's share price has shown a strong, notable, and continuous bullish pattern, maintaining support at ₹2010.
- Kotak Mahindra Bank: Buy at ₹422, Target ₹460, Stop Loss ₹410. Kotak Mahindra Bank's shares have exhibited a strong, notable, and continuous bullish pattern, with support at ₹410.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
