Indian equity benchmarks have extended their losing streak to a fourth consecutive session, with mounting geopolitical tensions, the spectre of heightened US tariffs, and uneven corporate results severely denting investor sentiment.
Benchmarks in a Prolonged Slide
Over the past four trading days, the BSE Sensex has plummeted by more than 1,465 points, while the Nifty 50 index has declined by approximately 1.7 percent. This sustained sell-off has overshadowed any isolated pockets of optimism in the market. The combined market capitalisation of all firms listed on the BSE has contracted by a staggering Rs 7.19 lakh crore during this period, settling at Rs 474 lakh crore.
Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, observed that recent market movements have been directionless. He highlighted that the indices are being disproportionately influenced by a few large-cap stocks. "For instance, yesterday despite positive institutional buying, Nifty drifted down by 71 points, mainly due to sharp declines in two stocks—Reliance and HDFC Bank," he stated. He attributed the high volumes in these stocks to derivative market settlement activity, suggesting the drops were "more technical in nature" rather than a reflection of poor fundamentals.
Key Factors Driving the Market Crash
Trump's Tariff Threats: A significant overhang is the potential for drastic US trade actions. Former US President Donald Trump has expressed support for a bipartisan proposal that could impose tariffs of at least 500 percent on Russian imports. This move is designed to pressure nations like India, China, and Brazil that continue purchasing discounted Russian crude oil. Although not yet law, the bill could be voted on soon.
Trump has also explicitly warned that Indian exports to the US could face steeper duties if New Delhi does not address Washington's concerns over its Russian oil imports. Currently, many Indian goods already attract US tariffs of up to 50 percent, with a substantial portion linked directly to India's crude imports from Russia.
Global and Domestic Pressures: The political turmoil in Venezuela, a major oil reserve holder, has added to global geopolitical uncertainty. Furthermore, large-cap stocks like HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries continued to drag the indices lower on Thursday. Sectorally, metal stocks were the worst hit, with the sectoral index falling 1.9% after a recent rally. IT stocks also retreated, and apparel retailer Trent remained under pressure amid competitive worries.
Broader Market Sentiment Turns Cautious
The cautious mood is mirrored across global markets. Most Asian indices traded lower on Thursday, with Japan's Nikkei falling 1.2% and China's CSI300 down 0.8%. Investors are also wary of China's new anti-dumping probe into chemicals used in chipmaking and are awaiting key US jobs data for clues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path.
Dr. Vijayakumar added that markets are closely watching for a potential US Supreme Court verdict on Trump-era reciprocal tariffs, which could inject significant volatility if ruled against. He reiterated that "Trump tweets and actions can always influence the market."
As the fourth day of losses concludes, the Indian market landscape is dominated by external shocks and technical pressures, leaving investors searching for stability amid a cloud of fresh uncertainties.
