Stock Market Live Updates: Sensex and Nifty50 may see a muted start on Thursday after a strong rally in the previous session, as indicated by GIFT Nifty trends. Markets staged a strong recovery on Wednesday, with the Nifty climbing more than 1% after crude oil prices witnessed a steep pullback on indications that the ongoing conflict could be nearing a resolution. Investor sentiment is cautious as signs of diplomatic progress in the Middle East conflict grow stronger, but crude oil prices still remain on the higher side. Gold prices remained mostly unchanged near a one-week high, with investors preferring to stay cautious while awaiting greater clarity on a possible US-Iran agreement.
Investor Wealth Surges by Rs 6 Lakh Crore
Investor wealth swelled by nearly Rs 5.99 lakh crore on Wednesday as equity markets rallied sharply after crude oil prices retreated following comments by US President Donald Trump suggesting progress in talks with Iran aimed at ending the ongoing conflict. Driven by strong buying in the final leg of trade, the 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 940.73 points, or 1.22%, to close at 77,958.52. During intraday trade, the benchmark had surged as much as 1,004.99 points, or 1.30%, to touch 78,022.78. The overall market value of firms listed on the BSE rose by Rs 5,99,107.83 crore, taking total market capitalisation to Rs 4,72,80,559.98 crore, equivalent to nearly $4.97 trillion.
Ajit Mishra, SVP-Research at Religare Broking Ltd, said positive domestic cues also lifted sentiment, especially in banking counters. He pointed to the government's recently announced credit guarantee support scheme for businesses as an additional trigger for the rally. On Tuesday, the government unveiled an Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) worth Rs 18,100 crore to provide support to MSMEs and airlines affected by the ongoing tensions in West Asia.
Bank Nifty Outlook: Bullish Candle Signals Upside
Index formed a strong bullish candle with a higher high and a higher low highlighting buying demand from the key support area of 54,000-54,400. Index on Wednesday session generated a breakout above the upper band of the falling channel containing the last nine sessions corrective decline signaling resumption of up move. Index is currently placed around the last week high of 56,475. A follow through strength above the same will open further upside towards 57,500 levels in the coming weeks. Failure to move above 56,475 will signal extension of the recent consolidation in the range of 54,000-56,475. Index has key support around 54,000 levels being the confluence of the recent low and 38.2% retracement of the last 3 weeks pullback (49,955-57,456).
Oil Prices Edge Higher; Brent Crude Above $100
Oil prices moved higher by nearly $1 in early Thursday trading, recovering part of the steep decline recorded in the previous session, as markets continued to assess whether efforts toward a Middle East peace agreement would ultimately succeed. By 0032 GMT, Brent crude futures had climbed 88 cents, or 0.9%, to $102.15 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude advanced $1.12, or 1.2%, to $96.20 per barrel. A day earlier, both benchmarks had tumbled more than 7%, touching their lowest levels in two weeks after optimism grew over the possibility of the conflict in the Middle East coming to an end. However, some of those losses were trimmed after US President Donald Trump remarked that direct talks with Tehran were still premature. Adding to the uncertainty, a senior Iranian lawmaker dismissed the American proposal as closer to a "wish list" than a practical agreement.
Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment, said peace discussions are expected to continue at least until the upcoming US-China summit next week, though uncertainty over developments after that remains high. Trump is scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping next week. Kikukawa noted that the broader expectation remains for oil prices to stay elevated. Meanwhile, Iran stated on Wednesday that it was examining a peace proposal put forward by the United States. According to sources, the proposal seeks to formally conclude the war, although major sticking points remain unresolved, including Washington's demands that Tehran halt its nuclear programme and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Outlook Positive After a Long Time?
The near-term market narrative has shifted meaningfully. Diplomatic signals emerging from the West Asia conflict have turned increasingly constructive, amid reports that US and Iran are close to agreeing on a one-page memorandum aimed at ending the war, thereby improving global risk sentiment. If negotiations sustain momentum, the prolonged consolidation phase in the Nifty could begin transitioning into a more durable market re-rating. Supportive domestic macros and a steady Q4FY26 earnings season continue to underpin broader sentiment. Combined with the improving geopolitical backdrop, policy support and macro tailwinds are, for the first time in several months, beginning to align in favour of risk assets, says Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.
Nifty Outlook: Consolidation with Upside Bias
Index formed a bullish candlestick pattern with a higher high and a higher low signaling extension of the previous session pullback from the last two weeks lows around 23,800-23,900 as the index continues to consolidate around the 20 days EMA. Nifty is currently placed around the upper band of the last nine sessions trading range 23,800-24,400. A breakout above 24,400 will open further upside towards 24,600 and 24,800 levels in the coming sessions. Stock specific action will continue to remain in focus as we progress through the quarterly earning session. Failure to move above 24,400 will signal extension of the last nine sessions consolidation in the range of 24,400-23,800. Short-term support is revised higher towards 23,800 levels being the almost identical low of the last two weeks.
Foreign institutional investors purchased equities worth Rs 5,834 crore on Tuesday. Domestic institutional investors also remained buyers, purchasing shares worth Rs 6,836 crore. Asian equities moved higher, led by a rally in Japanese shares after markets reopened following a holiday break. Investors remained encouraged by expectations that Washington and Tehran may be moving closer to a deal. Wall Street ended Wednesday's session on a strong note, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq touching fresh record closing highs. Crude prices rose nearly $1 in early Thursday trade after suffering steep losses in the previous session, as traders continued assessing the likelihood of a successful Middle East peace agreement.
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