Stock market live updates today: The BSE Sensex and Nifty50 are likely to open on a negative note following fresh US military strikes in Iran, which have pushed crude oil prices higher. Until Monday's close, analysts had maintained that the indices could sustain a gradual upward trajectory as long as crude oil remained under control, the rupee continued recovering from record lows, and geopolitical tensions eased. However, with renewed strikes and rising crude prices, sentiment has turned cautious again.
Oil Prices Mixed After US Strikes
Oil prices moved higher on Tuesday while global equities traded mixed, as hopes for a near-term peace agreement between the United States and Iran weakened after fresh American military strikes in the Middle East. According to an official familiar with the developments, Iran's foreign minister and chief negotiator traveled to Doha for discussions with Qatar's prime minister regarding a possible agreement with the US aimed at ending the conflict. The talks came even as both Washington and Tehran attempted to temper expectations of an immediate breakthrough.
Separately, Japan's Nikkei newspaper reported that the two sides were discussing a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz roughly 30 days after a peace agreement is reached to formally end hostilities. However, despite ongoing diplomatic discussions, US forces carried out strikes in southern Iran on Monday. The operations reportedly targeted boats suspected of attempting to deploy mines, along with missile launch locations, in what the US described as defensive military actions. These developments pushed Brent crude futures up more than 1% in early Asian trading to $97.32 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude also traded slightly higher compared with Monday's last traded levels, although it remained down 5.5% from Friday's close. There was no formal settlement on Monday because of the US Memorial Day holiday.
Nifty Outlook: Technical Analysis
According to Bajaj Broking, the Nifty index formed a strong bullish candlestick pattern on the daily chart with a higher high and higher low, along with a bullish gap below its base of 23,835-23,922. The index closed above the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages, highlighting a positive bias. The index has generated a breakout above the last nine sessions' broad trading range of 23,200-23,900, signaling strength. Sustaining above Monday's gap area will keep the bias positive and could open further upside toward 24,200 and 24,600 in the coming sessions. Immediate support is at 23,600, while major support is placed at 23,200-23,000, which is the confluence of the lower band of the April 8 bullish gap area and the 61.8% retracement of the previous pullback (22,182-24,601). The daily stochastic is in an uptrend, supporting the positive bias.
Sensex Round-Up of Monday Session
Indian equity markets climbed to their highest level in two weeks on Monday after indications of progress in peace discussions between the United States and Iran pushed crude oil prices lower and improved investor sentiment toward riskier assets. US President Donald Trump said on Saturday that Washington and Tehran had largely negotiated a memorandum of understanding on a peace agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime route that handled nearly one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipments before the conflict began. Following the remarks, Brent crude futures dropped 5.5% to $97.8 per barrel, touching their lowest level in two weeks.
The NSE Nifty advanced 312 points, or 1.3%, to settle at 24,032, while the BSE Sensex gained 1,074 points, or 1.4%, to end at 76,489. Both indices recorded their strongest closing levels since May 8. However, analysts noted that gains remained somewhat restricted after officials from both the United States and Iran attempted to cool expectations of an immediate breakthrough in negotiations. Out of the 16 major sectoral indices, 15 ended in positive territory. Broader markets also performed well, with the small-cap index rising 1.4% and the mid-cap index gaining 0.9%. Financial stocks led the rally among heavyweight sectors, climbing 2.2%. Private sector banking majors HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank surged 2.6% and 2.3%, respectively. Foreign portfolio investors have sold domestic equities worth $23.9 billion so far this year, exceeding last year's record annual outflows.
Market Outlook and Key Levels
Nifty is expected to continue its gradual upmove provided crude oil prices remain soft, the rupee sustains its recovery from record lows, and geopolitical tensions continue to ease. Indian benchmark indices opened sharply higher and held gains through the session, with the Nifty 50 ending up 1.3%, while Midcap and Smallcap indices gained 0.9% and 1.4%, respectively. The rally was primarily driven by a sharp fall in Brent crude prices, which declined nearly 6% to around $95 per barrel, slipping below the $100 mark for the first time in over two weeks amid hopes of a resolution to the Iran conflict. Reflecting this, the rupee appreciated 40 paise to 95.20 against the US dollar, while India VIX declined over 6% to 16.7, indicating easing volatility and improving investor confidence.
Sectorally, Automobile, Banking, and Financial stocks led the gains. Bank stocks rose up to 4% during the session as softer crude prices strengthened expectations of interest rate stability and lower inflation risks. Auto stocks also gained on hopes that lower fuel prices could support demand and ease input cost pressures. Sentiment was further supported after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the US and India were close to finalizing an interim trade agreement, with the US Trade Representative expected to visit India soon. Overall, the simultaneous easing in crude prices, rupee pressure, and geopolitical concerns provided a strong boost to risk appetite and drove broad-based participation across the market, according to Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.
Bank Nifty Outlook
According to Bajaj Broking, the Bank Nifty index formed a strong bullish candlestick pattern on the daily chart with a higher high and higher low, along with a bullish gap below its base of 54,055-54,590. The index closed above the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages, highlighting a positive bias. The index has generated a breakout above the falling supply line joining the recent highs, signaling strength. Sustaining above Monday's gap area will keep the bias positive and could open further upside toward 56,000 and 56,600 in the coming sessions. Immediate support is at 54,000, while major support is placed at 53,000-52,500, which is the confluence of the lower band of the April 8 bullish gap area and the 61.8% retracement of the previous pullback (22,182-24,601). The daily stochastic is in an uptrend, supporting the positive bias.
Global Market Impact
Asian equities gave up part of their gains while crude oil prices moved higher following reports of US strikes on targets in Iran, which weakened optimism around a possible agreement with Tehran. Brent crude futures climbed nearly 2% during early Asian trade on Tuesday after the US military launched strikes in southern Iran, describing the action as defensive. The development kept markets cautious as efforts to end the conflict remained unresolved. The dollar continued to trade with volatility on Tuesday as investors remained hopeful about a possible agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the three-month-long Iran conflict. However, renewed US strikes on Iranian targets weighed on overall sentiment.
