Stock market live updates today: BSE Sensex and Nifty50 are likely to witness a negative start on Monday as fresh tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran escalate, pushing crude oil prices higher. GIFT Nifty is indicating a weak opening for Indian equities. Analysts expect the market to trade within a broad range this week, influenced by domestic developments and global factors.
Market Outlook
Recent initiatives by the Reserve Bank of India to attract foreign capital and the government's tax incentives for foreign investors in government securities could provide some support to sentiment. However, stock-specific and sector-driven opportunities are expected to dominate market action in the near term. Foreign portfolio investors remained net sellers on Friday, offloading shares worth Rs 8,776 crore, while domestic institutional investors purchased equities worth a net Rs 9,133 crore, offsetting much of the selling.
Asian Stocks Plunge
Asian equities came under heavy selling pressure on Monday as investors pulled back from technology stocks, extending the recent correction in AI-linked counters. Renewed Israeli strikes on Beirut lifted both oil prices and the US dollar, adding to market nervousness. South Korea's technology-heavy KOSPI index slumped more than 6.8% in volatile trading, triggering a temporary 20-minute trading halt. Japan's Nikkei fell 3.4% in early trade. US equity futures attempted a modest recovery after Friday's sharp decline, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures edging higher.
The technology-led selloff gathered pace after the Nasdaq dropped 4.2% on Friday. Stronger-than-expected US employment data fuelled expectations of further interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve, prompting investors to reassess positions in high-growth stocks. Marc Velan, Head of Investments at Lucerne Asset Management in Singapore, said the latest decline appeared to be driven more by profit-taking and positioning adjustments than by doubts over the long-term prospects of artificial intelligence. US Treasury yields also moved higher, with the two-year yield climbing more than 11 basis points on Friday and rising a further 1.6 basis points on Monday to 4.1782%.
Crude Oil Prices Rise
Crude oil prices climbed by more than $2 a barrel on Monday after Israel carried out fresh attacks on Lebanon on Sunday, despite an existing truce. The renewed hostilities weakened expectations of a broader regional peace settlement and raised concerns about the resumption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. US crude futures were trading $2.10 higher, or 2.32%, at $92.64 a barrel, while Brent crude gained $2.33, or 2.5%, to reach $95.42 per barrel. The rally largely reversed Friday's losses, when oil prices had declined on growing optimism that tensions between the US and Iran could ease.
GDP Data Shows Underlying Strength
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments Limited, said, "Looking ahead, near-term market direction is likely to be shaped by the interplay of macroeconomic signals and global developments. The better-than-expected India GDP growth data highlights underlying economic resilience, though the sustainability of this momentum may face challenges from rising geopolitical risks, elevated energy prices, and tightening financial conditions. Focus will shift to the sustainability of RBI's supportive stance, evolving inflation trends, and the trajectory of bond yields."
Technical Outlook for Nifty
According to Bajaj Broking, Nifty on the weekly chart has formed a second consecutive bearish candlestick pattern with a lower high and a lower low, highlighting an extension of the corrective decline. In the coming week, the index is likely to consolidate in the range of 23,000-23,550. Only a move above Tuesday's high of 23,556 will open upside towards the resistance area of 23,750-23,800 levels. On multiple occasions, buying demand emerged from the key support area of 23,200-23,000, which is the confluence of the lower band of the 8th April bullish gap area, the lower band of recent consolidation, and the 61.8% retracement of the previous pullback (22,182-24,601). A breach below 23,000 can open further downside towards 22,600. Resistance is at 23,750-23,800 levels, and only a move above 23,800 will open upside towards 24,100.
Technical Outlook for Bank Nifty
Bajaj Broking also noted that Bank Nifty formed a high wave candlestick pattern with a long lower shadow, indicating buying demand at lower levels from the key support area of 52,500-53,000. The index has been consolidating in a broad range of 52,700-55,600 over the last three weeks. A breakout or breakdown will signal the next directional momentum. Key support is at 52,500-53,000, while resistance is at 55,200-55,600. Only a breakout above 55,600 will open further upside towards 56,500.
Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes, or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of Bharat Horizon.
