Stock Market Live Updates: Sensex and Nifty are expected to open on a muted note on Thursday, as GIFT Nifty indicates a weak start. Crude oil prices have climbed to multi-week highs, and the US Federal Reserve has adopted a cautious stance on inflation. Analysts note that the near-term trend remains uncertain, with markets poised to move in either direction. The monthly expiry of BSE contracts could also heighten volatility.
Market Overview
On Wednesday, the Sensex and Nifty ended in positive territory, supported by global cues and hopes of easing geopolitical tensions. However, persistently high oil prices and uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations continue to weigh on the market outlook. Today is the last trading day of the week, as the stock market will remain closed on May 1 in observance of Labour Day.
Crude Oil Prices Surge
A fresh surge in oil prices rattled the US bond market on Wednesday. Brent crude for July delivery climbed 5.8% to settle at $110.44 a barrel, later touching an intraday high of $111.84. The less-traded June contract briefly crossed $120 a barrel. Oil prices have risen sharply as President Donald Trump appears prepared to continue the US blockade on Iranian shipping, restricting Tehran's oil exports. In response, Iran has kept the Strait of Hormuz closed to other tankers, vowing to maintain the closure as long as the blockade remains.
Federal Reserve Policy
The sharp rise in crude prices reinforced the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged. While lower borrowing costs could support economic growth, they also risk adding to inflationary pressures. Three Fed officials opposed including language in the policy statement that might imply further rate cuts are likely in the near future. Bond yields moved higher after the announcement, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.41% and the two-year yield climbing to 3.93%.
Nifty Outlook
According to SBI Securities, the immediate resistance for Nifty is placed in the 24300-24330 zone. Any sustainable move above this zone could result in Nifty extending its pullback towards 24500, followed by 24650 in the short term. On the downside, the immediate support is placed in the 24000-23970 zone, which coincides with the 20-day EMA.
Bajaj Broking noted that the index formed a small bullish candle with a long upper shadow, signaling intraday volatility and selling pressure at higher levels. The index is consolidating in the broad range of 23,600-24,400. A move above 24,400 could open further upside towards 24,600 and 24,800. A close below the 20-day EMA around 23,950 would signal extension of the decline towards 23,800 and 23,600.
Bank Nifty Outlook
SBI Securities highlighted that Bank Nifty formed a small body bearish candle with a noticeable upper wick, marking the sixth instance in the last 11 sessions where the index has rallied intraday but failed to sustain. Immediate support is placed in the 55000-54900 zone. A sustainable move below this zone could lead to weakness towards 54600 and 54300. On the upside, the 55900-56000 zone is likely to act as immediate resistance.
Bajaj Broking expects Bank Nifty to extend consolidation in the broad range of 54,500-57,500 amid stock-specific action. A follow-through weakness below 55,250 will signal extension of the decline towards 54,500-54,000 levels. A move above 56,475 will open upside towards 57,000 and 57,500.
Sensex Recap from Wednesday
Indian benchmark indices staged a strong recovery on Wednesday, with the Sensex surging nearly 610 points and the Nifty closing above the 24,100 mark. The rebound was driven by value buying in FMCG, automobile, and telecom stocks, supported by optimism around corporate earnings and positive Asian markets. The BSE Sensex ended 609.45 points higher (0.79%) at 77,496.36, while the NSE Nifty50 gained 181.95 points (0.76%) to settle at 24,177.65.
Top performers in the Sensex pack included ITC, Tech Mahindra, Maruti Suzuki, Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel, and Mahindra & Mahindra. Notable losers were InterGlobe Aviation, NTPC, Bajaj Finserv, and ICICI Bank. Maruti Suzuki rose 2.82% after reporting its highest-ever annual consolidated net profit of Rs 14,679.5 crore for FY26, supported by record annual sales.
The broader market showed strength, with the BSE SmallCap Select index gaining 0.75%, while the MidCap Select index slipped 0.49%. Among sectoral indices, FMCG rose 1.57%, followed by Realty (up 1.42%), Telecommunication (up 1.28%), Energy (up 1.14%), and Auto (up 1.02%). Utilities fell the most, declining 1.22%, while Power dropped 1.05%.
FII and DII Activity
According to exchange figures, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net sellers on Tuesday, pulling out equities worth Rs 2,103.74 crore. In contrast, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were net buyers, investing Rs 1,712.01 crore in the stock market.
Global Markets
Wall Street finished flat on Wednesday as investors navigated surging oil prices, the Federal Reserve's policy announcement, and major corporate earnings. Asian equities traded lower, although US stock futures moved higher, supported by late gains in major technology stocks. Enthusiasm around artificial intelligence continued to underpin sentiment, even as rising oil prices and uncertainty over the Iran conflict kept investors cautious.
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